Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

I have written about kickers a bunch, and Lowery always comes up as the top-rated FG kicker of all time when I study the issue.

I wrote a bit about him today as well. Would love to hear your thoughts. Here's today's article:

http://www.footballperspective.com/lowe ... ur-charts/

The short version:

After adjusting FGs for era and distance, Lowery is the most accurate kicker ever, and also ranks 1st in FGs above average. And that's without adjusting for climate. When you compare the stadiums he kicked in to say, Morten Andersen, it's clear that Lowery was at a disadvantage.

Chase

Great article.

Lowery was the most accurate kicker for the 80s and 90s and from 1975-85 and 1985-95. All with the conditions you describe. Also, KC had a huge crown in the field. Dallas and KC, IMO had the highest ones. The Superdome, for example was flat, so at the hashes it was a big easier to kick and being down a foot or so.

When I was growing up I always though Lowery was the best. I didn't have any advanced stats, but just using the eye test. Also he had a good leg, not as powerful as Anersen's but strong enough to have 55+ length at times.

As for HOF, so few voters care much about kickers.

Also, there is a PFRA member who did a similar analysis using total points. And what it boils down to is even though Morten Andersen, by the eye test looked dominant and I don't deny he was special, meant a field goal and two PATs for his team per 16 games over the average kicker. Lowery meant 2 FGs and 2 PATs more than average per 16.

So, all those differences amoung to usually, less that a TD or just more than a TD.

Agreed, fine article.

It amazes me that Lowery gets less respect than he clearly deserves. No idea why he failed to make the all decade teams of the 80s or 90s -- Andersen and Anderson did, and while both were excellent kickers, Lowery was even better.

As far as Peak Value, I think Jan Stenerud from 1967-1970 was the most dominant kicker who ever lived. The most dominating season by a kicker in pro football history is an easy one - Lou Groza in 1953, hitting 23 of 26 field goals when the rest of the league was just over 40 percent in field goals.

Greatest kicker of all time is a tough one; I have the top three as Stenerud, Groza and Lowery, in no particular order, as the data is incomplete for Groza. My metrics rate Nick Lowery as the most productive kicker of all time; I won't get into the specific methods I use as I am in the final stages of completing a manuscript in which will explain in great mathematical detail how I reached this conclusion, and I don't want to give it away at this time. Below those three I would rate Morten Andersen fourth; he may have had the strongest kicking leg of all time, but he probably got an edge from playing much of his career indoors.

Adam Vinatieri will probably retire with the career scoring mark, he will probably own it sometime next season, and with his postseason heroics he will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, but I've always felt he is overrated, that he gets a huge advantage from playing his career for two of the greatest offenses in pro football history and only led the league in scoring once. In reality, I think Vinatieri is an above average kicker who has had a long career and was in the right place at the right time. I would put him at the lower end of the top ten, but he should really not be considered the greatest kicker ever. A lot of his reputation rests on three field goals. Above him I would probably put Jason Hanson and Jim Bakken and Gary Anderson.

I did a series adding in some other kicking factors, but much of the data is incomplete, though it could be gleaned from gamebooks...onside kicks, kickoffs, etc. But it would take someone with time and money to do it like the NFL or Elias. I had to back into some numbers making them estimates and not exact numbers. They give an idea on kickoffs but are off by a few.

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... story.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... lkins.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... ckers.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... touch.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... -legs.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... story.html

http://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/ ... -most.html

Thanks for the feedback, guys. Lowery's reputation is so out of whack with my impression of him that I really wanted some feedback as a sanity check. Appreciate hearing that we are all on the same page!

Also, as for the greatest season ever... I frankly would not have even remembered this myself, but apparently a rookie Raul Allegre checked in at #1 when I ran the numbers two years ago. That was his 1983 season.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the- ... -rankings/

He was 4/5 on kicks from 50+, with the one miss being from 64 yards! It was probably only attempted because it was in Denver. He hit from 52, 52, 53 and 55. He was 10/12 from 40-49, and 11/12 from 30-39. Given that he played in zero domes that year, I would assume Allegre's season would hold up well under a more sophisticated system that included climate analysis (my article two years ago did not). And, of course, he didn't even get Pro Bowl or 1AP All-Pro honors.

It's very interesting and eye-opening--but I think a kicker should also be evaluated on kickoff distance.

In fact, if Bill Belichick is to be believed, the kickoff is more important than the field goal. He let Vinatieri go in favor of the rookie Stephen Gostkowski because Gostkowski was better on kickoffs.

Chase Stuart wrote:Thanks for the feedback, guys. Lowery's reputation is so out of whack with my impression of him that I really wanted some feedback as a sanity check. Appreciate hearing that we are all on the same page!

Also, as for the greatest season ever... I frankly would not have even remembered this myself, but apparently a rookie Raul Allegre checked in at #1 when I ran the numbers two years ago. That was his 1983 season.

http://www.footballperspective.com/the- ... -rankings/

He was 4/5 on kicks from 50+, with the one miss being from 64 yards! It was probably only attempted because it was in Denver. He hit from 52, 52, 53 and 55. He was 10/12 from 40-49, and 11/12 from 30-39. Given that he played in zero domes that year, I would assume Allegre's season would hold up well under a more sophisticated system that included climate analysis (my article two years ago did not). And, of course, he didn't even get Pro Bowl or 1AP All-Pro honors.

Lowery comes up on the HOF preliminary list every year, but he'll never get in. He just doesn't have the bullet points, so to speak. He went to three Pro Bowls, two times first team All Pro, led the NFL in scoring once, but there were few postseason highlights to speak of. In the Wild Card against Miami in 1990, he barely missed a 52-yard FG in the last minute that would have won the game. In the 1991 Wild Card game against the Raiders, he missed two FG's (one of them blocked, the other from 33-yards) that would have iced the game, but the Chiefs still won 10-6. In the 1993 Wild Card game against Pittsburgh, he missed a 43-yarder that would have won the game with 12 seconds to play, sending the game into OT, but he won it with a 32-yard FG.

I wrote about Allegre's 1983 season, because I did a piece on Mark Moseley's 1983 season, and how Moseley led the NFL in points scored but Allegre had a much better season, and demonstrated this mathematically.

rhickok1109 wrote:It's very interesting and eye-opening--but I think a kicker should also be evaluated on kickoff distance.

In fact, if Bill Belichick is to be believed, the kickoff is more important than the field goal. He let Vinatieri go in favor of the rookie Stephen Gostkowski because Gostkowski was better on kickoffs.

But he also had good 2004 and 2005 season accuracy wise at Memphis. Wasn't like they were drafting a big leg who they hope finds his accuracy, this was a top college kicker they took in the 4th round.

rhickok1109 wrote:It's very interesting and eye-opening--but I think a kicker should also be evaluated on kickoff distance.

In fact, if Bill Belichick is to be believed, the kickoff is more important than the field goal. He let Vinatieri go in favor of the rookie Stephen Gostkowski because Gostkowski was better on kickoffs.

here are totals since 1991