Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Would those two Lombardi's (and against Belichick/Brady's Pats, mind you) and he being a Manning be enough with the voters?

Will he, yes.

Should he, no.

I cannot recall a single season where he would have been considered a top 5 QB in the NFL. If/when he goes in it'll be the ultimate of the "ringz" theory. I mean Kurt Warner can claim 2, maybe 3 years as THE top QB in the NFL and he's a controversial decision. Being 5th to 15th of 32 for a dozen years shouldn't cut it.

The family name and playing in NYC will help as well. Maybe those draft day shenanigans were worth it after all, Rivers to me has been the better pure QB.

74_75_78_79_ wrote:Would those two Lombardi's (and against Belichick/Brady's Pats, mind you) and he being a Manning be enough with the voters?

It might wind up being enough, though he'll likely wait a good while. Whether he's really deserving is another question. My impression is that Big Ben, who also has two titles, has notably better regular season stats than Eli and would currently be the more deserving of the two. Eli strikes me as better than Jim Plunkett or Tobin Rote or Jack Kemp (none of whom belong in) but if elected he might give Bobby Layne competition as the worst HoF QB with two championships.

Cannot claim not to have a horse in the race but I've long questioned (Maxymuk can attest) whether Big Ben is an HOFer. But he is statistically better. QB Rate+ era adjusts passer rating to an index, Eli is 99, an average QB would be 100, literally over his career Eli's ~84 rating is below average. Ben has only had 2 of 12 seasons at or below 99.

Agreed, I'm unsure if Big Ben is a HoFer as of now, though he's got a better case than Eli. The better Big Ben ages, the better his case. Regardless, my guess is he'll end up as a big-hall type at best.

NWebster wrote:Cannot claim not to have a horse in the race but I've long questioned (Maxymuk can attest) whether Big Ben is an HOFer. But he is statistically better. QB Rate+ era adjusts passer rating to an index, Eli is 99, an average QB would be 100, literally over his career Eli's ~84 rating is below average. Ben has only had 2 of 12 seasons at or below 99.

Ditto the horse in the race comment. However, to use a boxing analogy, just can't get into the punch-count approach of player evaluation. Ali let people pound the sh*t out of him round after round then took care of business when it mattered. When the big bell rang Eli got the job done, and I don't remember too many games that Eli lost by himself.

mwald wrote:

NWebster wrote:Cannot claim not to have a horse in the race but I've long questioned (Maxymuk can attest) whether Big Ben is an HOFer. But he is statistically better. QB Rate+ era adjusts passer rating to an index, Eli is 99, an average QB would be 100, literally over his career Eli's ~84 rating is below average. Ben has only had 2 of 12 seasons at or below 99.

Ditto the horse in the race comment. However, to use a boxing analogy, just can't get into the punch-count approach of player evaluation. Ali let people pound the sh*t out of him round after round then took care of business when it mattered. When the big bell rang Eli got the job done, and I don't remember too many games that Eli lost by himself.

I don't know, I can name numerous game - even playoff games - that Bret Favre single handedly lost and his HOF speech took less than 10 seconds. So I don't know that's the criteria. But it point to the fact that Eli's criteria is only big games. There were plenty of seasons where Eli's mediocrity meant that team didn't make the playoffs at all, not something I can say of Big Ben.

NWebster wrote:

mwald wrote:

NWebster wrote:Cannot claim not to have a horse in the race but I've long questioned (Maxymuk can attest) whether Big Ben is an HOFer. But he is statistically better. QB Rate+ era adjusts passer rating to an index, Eli is 99, an average QB would be 100, literally over his career Eli's ~84 rating is below average. Ben has only had 2 of 12 seasons at or below 99.

Ditto the horse in the race comment. However, to use a boxing analogy, just can't get into the punch-count approach of player evaluation. Ali let people pound the sh*t out of him round after round then took care of business when it mattered. When the big bell rang Eli got the job done, and I don't remember too many games that Eli lost by himself.

I don't know, I can name numerous game - even playoff games - that Bret Favre single handedly lost and his HOF speech took less than 10 seconds. So I don't know that's the criteria. But it point to the fact that Eli's criteria is only big games. There were plenty of seasons where Eli's mediocrity meant that team didn't make the playoffs at all, not something I can say of Big Ben.

Oh, you're right. It's definitely not the criteria they're using, but it's my criteria. I'm a "when greatness happened, who was there?" guy.

Tony Dungy once said, "I just think winners win. And guys who won all the way through high school and college, the best player at any level, they have a way of making things happen and winning games." It doesn't mean I'm right because Dungy said something similar, it just resonates with me, that's all.

Some players just have a way of stepping up at crucial times or making their teammates better. Recent examples: Reggie White made the whole team better by his presence; JJ Watt really doesn't. Randy Moss was phenomenal but never really made his team better outside of his production; Steve Smith could catch two balls but have more impact on his team winning than Moss ever did. Can I prove this objectively? Nope.

Big Ben, to me, gets in especially if he tacks on some more of the statistical years he's really been tacking on as of late while, of course, still winning playoffs games if not more. Making it to three SBs and winning two of them with one of them being a 2-minute drill a la 'Joe Cool' twenty years earlier (albeit a slightly more 'rugged'/tacklers-bouncing-off-him, quicker, less-'surgical' version). Being a Steeler, fair or not (yes, not fair), also helps his case.

Barring 'riding off into the sunset' with a Ring (which still may not 'clinch' it for him with voters), it looks like Rivers will become the modern-day Ken Anderson - unfairly not in because he never won-it-all along with not being on a...'marquee' team. To me, all that Eli has going for him are the two Rings at Pats' expense, being a Manning and, yes NWebster, playing in the Big Apple (should have added that to the OP as well). Ben and Philip are clearly the better 'Class of 2004' QBs. Switch the two and likely Rivers has two Rings with the 'Burgh and Canton-bound while Big Ben is the 'Ken Anderson' of his era instead - only having playoff appearances to his credit as a Charger. Place either two in NYG and both lead Giants to two SB-victories as well along with likely leading them to playoffs more years along with, perhaps, being better than 10-6 & 9-7 respectively in those very SB years (perhaps both punch-in ANOTHER Ring in '08! That was the best Giants team of the Coughlin era). All this, of course, JMO.

Yes, NWebster, it looks like Archie on Draft Day will end up being the difference after all. Eli better thank his father in the induction speech. Although I do overall respect and like the Mannings (nobody's perfect), that along with Peyton end-of-'06 AFCC hiding his head in a towel on the bench instead of standing front-and-center on the sidelines, cheering on and having faith in his D (yes, Brady the opposing QB), sort of rubs me the wrong way in hindsight. Nothing major at all, but still.

mwald wrote: Some players just have a way of stepping up at crucial times or making their teammates better. Recent examples: Reggie White made the whole team better by his presence; JJ Watt really doesn't. Randy Moss was phenomenal but never really made his team better outside of his production; Steve Smith could catch two balls but have more impact on his team winning than Moss ever did. Can I prove this objectively? Nope.

Strange comments, subjective or not. JJ Watt doesn't step up or make his team better? I can think of 31 teams that would immediately improve with him in the lineup. Randy Moss didn't make the '98 Vikings better than the '97 edition? He didn't make the '07 Pats better than the '06 team?

Reggie White was...well, he was Reggie White but he played on some great teams and only won one championship. His three sacks in SB 31 came when the result was all but assured. JJ Watt's QB is Brian Hoyer. Good luck with that. Steve Smith was/is terrific but comparing him to Randy Moss in any sense is a huge stretch.

Back to Eli and Canton; why do we have these discussions about guys that aren't considering retirement anytime soon?