Okay, what are your theories for difference?

JohnTurney
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by JohnTurney »

Jeremy Crowhurst wrote:
For all the simplicity of the obvious answer, it's really impossible to quantify most of the other factors. But here's one that can maybe be quantified: the revenge factor. From 2003 to 2006, when the Pats were up by 14 points, the run-pass was approximately 4:3, 2:1, 4:3, 3:2, respectively. They scored 4, 5, 5, and 8 touchdowns, respectively. In 2007, as we all know, they poured it on. The run-pass ratio was 1:1, they added 22 touchdowns and more than 2100 total yards when up by 14.

So when Brady is piling on yards and touchdowns in the fourth quarter against teams that are already thoroughly defeated and just want to go home, does that make him a better QB than he was the year before?
Revenge factor, as you call it. That is an interesting point. Now, the OP was about the difference in stats. So, if there is a difference in stats and it's because it was revenge for Spygate, then there IS a difference. Then you ask does that make him better? Answer, no, not necessarily.

However, to those who say there is no difference because the game being played had changed, it ends that discussion because you are suggesting Brady was doing something to make those stats go up, namely running up the score. So, that was not a systemic change in the NFL game, it would be one player and one team saying "we don't need to spy on you to beat you badly". That isn't accounted for by how PI is called or holding or rules protecting WRs or QBs.

And you did it with stats, showing they passed more when they had lead than they had previously. As I said in earlier post, you make good point.

I would ask, though if they continued that kind of run/pass ratio in subsequent years.
JohnTurney
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by JohnTurney »

Reaser wrote:
oldecapecod11 wrote:Statistics and bikinis... both cause drooling by those who are little more than stats rats. So, wipe your chins.

Ask this question of anyone who played the game. (Yes; for the rats only group, it is a prerequisite.)

Would you rather have great stats and play on a mediocre team that watches the play-offs on their "devices;"
or,
would you rather have mediocre stats and play on a great team that has a chance to win it all?

Ask friend and foe alike and the honest answers will be the latter.

We have posted this before but: statistics are like bikinis - what they reveal may be appealing but what they conceal is vital.
"Vital" in Sports - including Football - is W-L-T and the ultimate statistic that matters annually is a Super Bowl victory.

Losers will show you their statistics; winners can show you their rings.

Melvin Earl "Bud" Biddle (November 28, 1923 – December 16, 2010) was a United States Army soldier and a recipient of the United States military's highest decoration—the Medal of Honor—for his actions in World War II...
...By December 23, 1944, Biddle was serving in Europe as a private first class in Company B of the 1st Battalion, 517th Parachute Infantry Regiment...
...For his actions during the battle near Soy, Biddle was awarded the Medal of Honor at the White House on October 30, 1945,
by President Harry Truman. When presenting the medal to Biddle, Truman whispered
"People don't believe me when I tell them that I'd rather have one of these than be President."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melvin_E._Biddle

A similar statement can be made about a Super Bowl ring.
Arguably the best post in this thread, so far.
Figures. Because in that context Brady has fewer rings in 2nd part of career versus the first. Non sequitur of the day is more like it.
Reaser
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by Reaser »

JohnTurney wrote:sacks
Sacks are such a minuscule part of the game and season that as a stat they are very irrelevant. Most certainly they are overrated (see: all-pro voting for one of numerous examples) ...
you failed to address Belichick saying the usefulness of statistical formulas that take into account TDs and INTs, etc. Says a lot.
and you failed to talk about all the snaps you've taken. Says even more.

but yes, many coaches have their own stat and/or stats that they like and/or buy in to. The good ones can show "winning stats", stats that are part of winning. Most - not all - are team stats because if stats have any importance, team stats are infinitely more important than individual stats.
But what I would like to see is what changes in how the game was played happed at the juncture of 2006 and 2007. You have not offered any evidence. You seem to be suggesting that there were different era. Okay, name them.

2001 to 2002? 2003 to 2004? When and why? What are the "multiple" lines of demarcation? Be specific. And I just don't take the "take your word for it"

We're talking a steady rise in NFl passer rating.
You answered your own question with "steady rise" ... and I have no idea why 2001 to 2002 is mentioned since I never mentioned that.

I'm not sure what's confusing about passing becoming easier, by year, the closer you get and up to 2015. That's common sense. Why is it easier? Rule changes/how the sport is played. Some changes bring instant change, some are more gradual (takes teams/players time to adjust, time as in seasons) ... Emphasis on illegal contact, Def P.I., Def holding going into 2004 can be a start. Even outlawing the horse-collar tackle and emphasis over the next couple years (one less way for DB's to bring down WR's) which is something that gradually changed the sport. Added protections, emphasis and not allowing low hits to QB's in 2006. More emphasis on protecting QB's in 2009 (since Brady was injured the previous year). So-called defenseless receivers and their protections. All the while the advent of more 'spread' offenses, the league, as always wanting more points/passing and having the league officiated as such, the middle of the field opening up more and more by the year during this period, teams - especially smart teams - taking advantage of passing being easier, hence changing/designing offense/team/building around QB to do as such. You keep saying you know these things and I'm sure you do, everyone does. Which is why no one is surprised when seeing increased passing statistics. Furthermore, we don't - those of us who don't need stats to tell us the story, at least - even need the stats to know the obvious, passing has gotten easier.

You chose the 2007 line, not me (my 'stats' posts were, as stated, filled with sarcasm showing that passing stats have increased for all the players mentioned). I would even bet Chad Pennington's passer rating was better in the combined 2007-end of his career timeframe than it was in the combined years prior. Why? Not because he changed much at all (he even had all the injuries), but because passing stats went up. Passing statistics increase yearly so common sense says one of - if not the - best QB's in the league would see his stats increase during the same period, in reference to Brady. The specific 'jump' in 2007 is easily explained, Jeremy twice and two different ways explained it in this thread, as did many others. There's simple answers: rule changes gradually made passing easier, Moss/Welker, Pats essentially ran up the score (as Jeremy noted). Passing was easier in 2007 than it was in 2001, 2002, 2003. Passing in 2015 is easier than it was in 2004. Passing in 2014 was easier than it was in 2005. Hence when you combine the latter years you will have better passing statistics.
I would just hope you allow others the respect that one does not have to have taken snaps from center to understand these things.
It certainly helps to have done something than not. One can hear about what it's like to be in the Army from an 'expert' who was never in the Army or hear it from people who were in the Army. Or behind door #3, the best option, join the Army and find out for yourself. (note: Army doesn't pertain specifically to me, just random example.)
They are valid opinions given by good and honest PFRA members. I think we can agree on that.
Sure can.
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oldecapecod11
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by oldecapecod11 »

by JohnTurney » Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:15 pm


Reaser wrote:

oldecapecod11 wrote:
...Statistics and bikinis...
...Losers will show you their statistics; winners can show you their rings..
..."People don't believe me when I tell them that I'd rather have one of these than be President."

Arguably the best post in this thread, so far.


Figures. Because in that context Brady has fewer rings in 2nd part of career versus the first. Non sequitur of the day is more like it.
JohnTurney

---

Your poorly selected use of Latin is laughable.

The post was not intended to "follow" any previous statements.
It is simply an undisputable presentation to help the compilers of needless statistics come to their senses
and to allow those who understand Football some relief from the cheese-collecting stats rats.

Portions of this entire thread are like little girls playing jump rope and are reminiscent of the little spats in the old forum -
the one the previous administration trashed - that took place between Edsel and Veeshik_ya, or was it Edsel and RichS?
Memory fails.

Whatever, pull out your English/Latin phrase book and get it right.
Just think - had you lived in the days of the Roman Empire, you could have counted the Lions / Christians stats.
You might have used 60 BC as your separation point. Anything AD would add to the translation problems.

Gaius Julius was a magnus vir, who beat the Gallos every year.
He proved the Belgae only human, by dumping eos in the flumen.
He got there firstest with the mostest, and superavit all the hostes.
Then while peeling him a ripe banana, he dreamt about a Pax Romana.

Pax vobiscum... we are dreaming of peace under this forward-thinking presidency...
Sheath your little dagger of jealousy. Behave.
Last edited by oldecapecod11 on Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
"It was a different game when I played.
When a player made a good play, he didn't jump up and down.
Those kinds of plays were expected."
~ Arnie Weinmeister
JohnTurney
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by JohnTurney »

oldecapecod11 wrote:by JohnTurney » Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:15 pm


Reaser wrote:

oldecapecod11 wrote:
...Statistics and bikinis...
...Losers will show you their statistics; winners can show you their rings..
..."People don't believe me when I tell them that I'd rather have one of these than be President."

Arguably the best post in this thread, so far.


Figures. Because in that context Brady has fewer rings in 2nd part of career versus the first. Non sequitur of the day is more like it.
JohnTurney

---

Your poorly selected use of Latin is laughable.

The post was not intended to "follow" any previous statements.
It is simply an undisputable presentation to help the compilers of needless statistics come to their senses
and to allow those who understand Football some relief from the cheese-collecting stats rats.

Portions of this entire thread are like little girls playing jump rope and are reminiscent of the little spats in the old forum -
the one the previous administration trashed - that took place between Edsel and Veeshik_ya, or was it Edsel and MRich?
Memory fails.

Whatever, pull out your English/Latin phrase book and get it right.
Just think - had you lived in the days of the Roman Empire, you could have counted the Lions / Christians stats.
You might have used 60 BC as your separation point. Anything AD would add to the translation problems.

Gaius Julius was a magnus vir, who beat the Gallos every year.
He proved the Belgae only human, by dumping eos in the flumen.
He got there firstest with the mostest, and superavit all the hostes.
Then while peeling him a ripe banana, he dreamt about a Pax Romana.

Pax vobiscum... we are dreaming of peace under this forward-thinking presidency...
Sheath your little dagger of jealousy. Behave.
VESCERE BRACIS MEIS
mwald
Posts: 290
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:37 pm

Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by mwald »

JohnTurney wrote:
oldecapecod11 wrote:by JohnTurney » Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:15 pm


Reaser wrote:

oldecapecod11 wrote:
...Statistics and bikinis...
...Losers will show you their statistics; winners can show you their rings..
..."People don't believe me when I tell them that I'd rather have one of these than be President."

Arguably the best post in this thread, so far.


Figures. Because in that context Brady has fewer rings in 2nd part of career versus the first. Non sequitur of the day is more like it.
JohnTurney

---

Your poorly selected use of Latin is laughable.

The post was not intended to "follow" any previous statements.
It is simply an undisputable presentation to help the compilers of needless statistics come to their senses
and to allow those who understand Football some relief from the cheese-collecting stats rats.

Portions of this entire thread are like little girls playing jump rope and are reminiscent of the little spats in the old forum -
the one the previous administration trashed - that took place between Edsel and Veeshik_ya, or was it Edsel and MRich?
Memory fails.

Whatever, pull out your English/Latin phrase book and get it right.
Just think - had you lived in the days of the Roman Empire, you could have counted the Lions / Christians stats.
You might have used 60 BC as your separation point. Anything AD would add to the translation problems.

Gaius Julius was a magnus vir, who beat the Gallos every year.
He proved the Belgae only human, by dumping eos in the flumen.
He got there firstest with the mostest, and superavit all the hostes.
Then while peeling him a ripe banana, he dreamt about a Pax Romana.

Pax vobiscum... we are dreaming of peace under this forward-thinking presidency...
Sheath your little dagger of jealousy. Behave.
VESCERE BRACIS MEIS
Lest it be said I don't give credit where credit is due, THAT was funny.
Jeremy Crowhurst
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by Jeremy Crowhurst »

I gather that's the Latin equivalent of "Bye, Felicia!"?
rhickok1109
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Joined: Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:57 am

Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by rhickok1109 »

JohnTurney wrote:
Brady's stats from 2001-06 have a low standard deviation, meaning he was a consistent performer. From 2007-2014 it was also pretty low, though not as uniform as 2001-06. There was a jump in 2007, but the jump stayed.
But, John, the jump didn't stay. It lasted approximately four seasons, 2007, 2009-11 (he missed virtually all of 2008) and then went back to pretty much levels as before 2007. In 2007, his YPA was 130% of the league average, just to use one (but one important) measure. In 2013 and 2014, his YPA was actually below the league average. His completion percentage in 2007 was 129% of the league average. Over the last four seasons, it's been 108%, 96%, 107%, and 107%, respectively.
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oldecapecod11
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Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by oldecapecod11 »

by JohnTurney » Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:15 pm

VESCERE BRACIS MEIS
JohnTurney

This is not surprising. No one expected any better.

But, it was done - long before any post from this seat.

The SHORTsightedness of your logic was devoured by the more knowledgeable.
The SHORTmindedness of your recall was exposed by a number of thinkers.
The SHORTterm of your good behavior can be due to the fallacy of your posts.

Not only did the little girls play jump rope but, when they got older, the cry was...
SHE wears short shorts. How fitting... (Must have been a cheerleader?)

---

by Jeremy Crowhurst » Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:59 pm

I gather that's the Latin equivalent of "Bye, Felicia!"?
Jeremy Crowhurst

Good point: A catwoman, indeed...
"It was a different game when I played.
When a player made a good play, he didn't jump up and down.
Those kinds of plays were expected."
~ Arnie Weinmeister
JohnTurney
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Joined: Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:28 pm

Re: Okay, what are your theories for difference?

Post by JohnTurney »

rhickok1109 wrote:
JohnTurney wrote:
Brady's stats from 2001-06 have a low standard deviation, meaning he was a consistent performer. From 2007-2014 it was also pretty low, though not as uniform as 2001-06. There was a jump in 2007, but the jump stayed.
But, John, the jump didn't stay. It lasted approximately four seasons, 2007, 2009-11 (he missed virtually all of 2008) and then went back to pretty much levels as before 2007. In 2007, his YPA was 130% of the league average, just to use one (but one important) measure. In 2013 and 2014, his YPA was actually below the league average. His completion percentage in 2007 was 129% of the league average. Over the last four seasons, it's been 108%, 96%, 107%, and 107%, respectively.
Definately a dip for the years you mention, that is why standard dev is higher in second set of numbers. And I agree, the levels didn't stay as they did in 2007, espcially 2013, his TDs were below 30, that 2013 season looks bad compared to the rest... it looks just like 2001-2006 set. My view on 2013 is that Gronk missed half the season.

That said, is that even though the differences can be less, so the rate+ for 2001-2006 is 111, it's 121 in more recent set. Now. statistically we can get into the weeds here, but for example the differences in INT % in terms of the PFR advanced passing can get tricky. Has to do with baseline percentages and things that I get out of my depth in, but there are limits, for example.

So, anyway, I contend that even though the spike of 2007 is big, there still is a rise overall, over and above league averages. Less than the spike, but higher than before, when corrected for "era".
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