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Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:40 pm
by Bryan
GameBeforeTheMoney wrote:Rivers is a good comparison, but I personally would put him ahead of Rivers. Again, that's my opinion, but I am surprised about the negativity toward Stafford.
Rate+ seasons above 100, min. 10 starts (above league average): Rivers = 13, Stafford = 7
Rate+ seasons above 120, min 10 starts (elite): Rivers = 5, Stafford = 0
So Stafford isn't nearly as consistent as Rivers, nor did Stafford ever produce an elite season relative to his peers. My negativity isn't really toward Stafford, it's to the idea that he is "underhonored". He made one pro bowl, and he shouldn't even made that one. Yes, he might not have had a great team around him, but I'm still not seeing this incredible "production" from Stafford that would lead me to believe that the general public is somehow mischaracterizing Stafford's career. Yes, he's thrown for over 4K in 9 of the last 11 seasons...but is that really meaningful in any way? Rivers threw for over 4K in 12 of his last 13 seasons, yet you still rate Rivers behind Stafford. So what is the meaning of 4K in a season?
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:55 pm
by Bryan
Zero26 wrote:Staffords the fastest QB in NFL history to reach 50k yards. He was 1 nice pass away from throwing for 5k yards twice. He averages 275 yards a game over his career(4th in NFL history) 10 more than Tom Brady,5 more than Peyton, 15 more than Rodgers. Now calling him better than those guys based on just that is very misleading
Yes, very misleading. Peyton's career began when Stafford was in grade school. Passing numbers have gotten inflated in the last decade which "coincides" with Matt Stafford's career. Do we give credit to Stafford's impeccable sense of timing? Or do you really believe that Stafford achieved something meaningful by becoming the 'fastest' QB in NFL history to reach 50K yards? The yards per game is the same thing. Andrew Luck is higher than Manning, Deshaun Watson is higher than Brady, Kirk Cousins is higher than Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff is higher than Dan Marino. The analysis is all the QB's whose careers started before 2005 are worse than all the QBs whose careers started more recently. Do you really think that is true?
Zero26 wrote:Stafford is a slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers IMO.
Can you start a new thread titled "Stafford the most slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers in NFL history"? This has gone from 'discussion' to 'troll job' rather quickly, IMO.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 5:29 pm
by rhickok1109
GameBeforeTheMoney wrote:Respectfully, I disagree. Stafford has thrown for 4K yards a season for over a decade, minus one season that he missed half the year and another year that he threw for over 3700 yards. The average fan probably can't name a receiver he had in Detroit other than Megatron. Talentwise, to me at least, he's clearly heads and shoulders above Cousins and the group that's kind of at the midlevel. Rivers is a good comparison, but I personally would put him ahead of Rivers. Again, that's my opinion, but I am surprised about the negativity toward Stafford. I will pay more attention to him in the next few weeks and in the playoffs and see if my image of him changes. Are there real issues with him that I should be looking for? What am I missing about him? I figured most people recognized him as at least an above-average quarterback with a great arm. I don't ever remember watching him play and thinking that he was terrible/mediocre or couldn't be part of a winning team if surrounded with a fair amount of talent.
Stafford is a great thrower of the football but too often he panics and does stupid things that no great QB would ever do.
A classic example was in the game against Tennessee, the Rams' second loss of the season. Leading 3-0, Stafford retreated into his end zone and, to avoid being sacked for a safety, he opted to throw the ball directly to a Tennessee linebacker to set up the Titans' first TD. Shortly after that, he threw a really bad pick-6 aiming for a receiver who was covered under and over on the sidelines. The Rams never really recovered and lost 28-16.
I've seen him do that sort of thing much too often.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 6:11 pm
by TanksAndSpartans
Bryan wrote:Can you start a new thread titled "Stafford the most slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers in NFL history"? This has gone from 'discussion' to 'troll job' rather quickly, IMO.
This was funny - just wish you would have deleted the 2nd sentence. I don't agree with Zero26 on everything, but there is a lot of thought behind his posts, no troll for sure.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:24 pm
by Zero26
Bryan wrote:Zero26 wrote:Staffords the fastest QB in NFL history to reach 50k yards. He was 1 nice pass away from throwing for 5k yards twice. He averages 275 yards a game over his career(4th in NFL history) 10 more than Tom Brady,5 more than Peyton, 15 more than Rodgers. Now calling him better than those guys based on just that is very misleading
Yes, very misleading. Peyton's career began when Stafford was in grade school. Passing numbers have gotten inflated in the last decade which "coincides" with Matt Stafford's career. Do we give credit to Stafford's impeccable sense of timing? Or do you really believe that Stafford achieved something meaningful by becoming the 'fastest' QB in NFL history to reach 50K yards? The yards per game is the same thing. Andrew Luck is higher than Manning, Deshaun Watson is higher than Brady, Kirk Cousins is higher than Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff is higher than Dan Marino. The analysis is all the QB's whose careers started before 2005 are worse than all the QBs whose careers started more recently. Do you really think that is true?
Zero26 wrote:Stafford is a slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers IMO.
Can you start a new thread titled "Stafford the most slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers in NFL history"? This has gone from 'discussion' to 'troll job' rather quickly, IMO.
Fastest to 50k includes all the guys from Staffords generation. Luck has a smaller sample size than Stafford as do a lot of these other guys. Cousins is barely ahead of Rodgers in career YPG, not ahead by 15 yards. All stats require context but within an era I think average stats are a good indictator. And while Staffords touchdown stats aren't quite as awe inspiring all his average stats compare well in his era among other greats.
Anyway here's another shameless troll saying "he's one of the most gifted throwers of the football in my generation and I'd put him up there with some of the most gifted guys to ever throw the football".
https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/aa ... very-clear
I will agree that it might have made sense to exclude Stafford from the pro bowl in 2014. However he was denied the pro bowl for several more productive seasons including winning ones. The focus of my post was more on the years he didn't make it rather than the one he did. 5k yards(or 4.97k yards) should get you in the pro bowl. And regardless of how passing stats have been inflated if a QB is not named Drew Brees that's still a historic acheivement. A QB recently won MVP with 3.1k passing yards and 4.3k yards from scrimmage.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:25 pm
by JameisLoseston
Having tracked Stafford's performance closely every year he's been in the league, honestly, 2011 and this season are the only ones where I think he's done enough in comparison to other QBs in the same season to warrant Pro Bowl selection, especially given that he's rarely been on winning teams. He tends to have high yardage and low touchdown totals, and average around high-end QB2 fantasy production. Nothing worthy of honors most of the time, imo. Going forward, however, he could very well start making it more years than not.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:52 pm
by Zero26
JameisLoseston wrote:Having tracked Stafford's performance closely every year he's been in the league, honestly, 2011 and this season are the only ones where I think he's done enough in comparison to other QBs in the same season to warrant Pro Bowl selection, especially given that he's rarely been on winning teams. He tends to have high yardage and low touchdown totals, and average around high-end QB2 fantasy production. Nothing worthy of honors most of the time, imo. Going forward, however, he could very well start making it more years than not.
His touchdown stats aren't as good as the yardage stats which are close to the best ever. But they are still great. Most HOF players stats are better in either yardage or touchdowns. I'll agree touchdown averages should be weighed a bit more(hence why I don't think he's better than guys like Rodgers,Brady or Peyton). Stafford at 33 is already in the 300 TD club and has thrown for 40 touchdowns and 30 three times now. Of the players near the top of the career passing TD's list these are their averages(made Eli's 1.55 the minimum). These players except Marino mostly benefited from the inflated passing stats. Only the very best HOF QB's have his sample size scoring TD's at a higher clip. Cousins has the same average but he's thrown 100 less touchdowns. Even with a MUCH smaller sample size only 3 QB's from the most pass friendly era are throwing TD's at a higher clip than Stafford(could be missing someone but think I checked everyone). Josh Allen a fourth is the only QB coming close. Kyler Murray who just beat Stafford for the pro bowl is averaging TD's at a slower clip than Eli Manning. He has already been to the pro bowl twice as has Goff.
Mahomes 2.41(much smaller sample size)
Hebert 2.13(much smaller sample size)
Rodgers 2.11
Peyton 2.03
Brees 1.99
Luck 1.99
Brady 1.96
Watson 1.93(much smaller sample size)
Wilson 1.83
Stafford 1.77
Cousins 1.77
Marino 1.74
Rivers 1.73
Josh Allen 1.71
Warner 1.68
Favre 1.68
Ben 1.68
Ryan 1.66
Wentz 1.66
Prescott 1.63
Winston 1.63
Palmer 1.62
Romo 1.59
Eli 1.55
In terms of pro bowls I can see why you wouldn't put down 2012 where he was 4-12 and had a lot picks regardless of almost doing 5k a second straight year. But in 2016,2017 he had winning records and played really well. I can see the case for him not making it in 2014 but if the issue is winning he played better in all his winning seasons and at this point there's been 5 of those. Thinking he would make it every single year he had a winning team and played well is too much to ask but he has 1 pro bowl out of 5 winning seasons.
Anyhow him having a better chance going forward with the Rams is why it was so frustrating to see him not get picked this year(in a year where QB play as a collective has not been that great). The sad thing is if he misses the super bowl he likely will make it as an alternate(all the other likely NFC contenders have pro bowl QB's) but if he makes the super bowl and proves everyone wrong he won't. But even just 2 or 3 doesn't look good for a HOF case though I guess titles could overcome that.
There's also the element of him being the QB for 2 of the greatest statistical seasons. Before this could be chalked up to Calvin Johnsons unprecedented talent but with the success of Kupp this is no longer the case.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:01 am
by Bryan
TanksAndSpartans wrote:This was funny - just wish you would have deleted the 2nd sentence. I don't agree with Zero26 on everything, but there is a lot of thought behind his posts, no troll for sure.
There "was a lot of thought" behind Zero26's statement that Stafford is a slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers?! Did I somehow miss one of Zero26's postings? Stafford is about as similar to Aaron Rodgers as Benny Malone is to Jim Brown. What on earth are you talking about?
Does PFRA still do IP checks to sniff out alternate accounts?
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 6:11 am
by Bryan
Zero26 wrote:Fastest to 50k includes all the guys from Staffords generation.
However he was denied the pro bowl for several more productive seasons including winning ones.
Cool, I'm glad we've gone from "Matt Stafford -- better than Brady/Manning/Rodgers" to "Matt Stafford -- greatest QB of his generation". That is a much more tolerable moniker.
And I also agree that Stafford was "denied" the pro bowl for several more productive seasons. That is indeed a factual statement on your part. Again, where the twain shall meet is when you actually say which specific seasons Stafford was unfairly left off the pro bowl roster. Otherwise, I'm not really understanding what is behind your claim of Stafford being the most underhonored player in NFL history...he made a pro bowl roster undeservedly. He's not the first player to do so. He won't be the last.
Re: Stafford most underhonored player in NFL history?
Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:35 pm
by TanksAndSpartans
Bryan wrote:TanksAndSpartans wrote:This was funny - just wish you would have deleted the 2nd sentence. I don't agree with Zero26 on everything, but there is a lot of thought behind his posts, no troll for sure.
There "was a lot of thought" behind Zero26's statement that Stafford is a slightly lesser version of Aaron Rodgers?
You're changing my words. It wasn't in regard to that
statement - I said there was a lot of thought behind his posts in general. He's one of just a handful posters that I've gotten into some good discussions with on earlier eras and while we don't always agree, I respect the thought he puts behind his opinions.
Bryan wrote:Did I somehow miss one of Zero26's postings? What on earth are you talking about? Does PFRA still do IP checks to sniff out alternate accounts?
The OP supports his arguments, debates respectfully, etc. I think it was a good thread - if someone evaluates a player differently than me, I'll give it a read. Some people never change their view or always think they are right, etc. - I can see using some snark in those cases or in cases where it injects a little humor. Doesn't seem needed in this case though. Now if it was about the '84 Dolphins, maybe a different story
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)