Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

JameisLoseston wrote:Everyone always pulls the "no one ever returned on Ray Guy" card, which does indicate that some responsibility for avoiding returns is on the punter, but I wonder how true it is. This list is nothing but active dudes, but where does Guy rank in net and gross - net among punters before, say, 2000? Was Guy really HOF material?

Looking at PFR’s tool which lets you look at career rankings following each season, Guy was ranked joint 17th in gross average when he retired after 1986.

The passing game has changed so much in the NFL, whereas kicking and punting is fundamentally the same as it’s ever been.

Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford having better career stats than Johnny Unitas and Otto Graham can be easily explained. Jan Stenerud might be more dominant over his peers than say Justin Tucker, but Tucker is clearly a far better kicker. It’s still snap, hold and kick from 7 yards back through goalposts which are actually narrower today than they were in the 60s and 70s.

It would be unfair to say Tucker lacks dominance over his peers just because the overall standard of kicking today is so much higher than during Stenerud’s era. Punters and kickers are pretty much reaching their limit. Tucker is a 90% career FG kicker. There’s very little room for improvement.

boknows34 wrote:The passing game has changed so much in the NFL, whereas kicking and punting is fundamentally the same as it’s ever been.

Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford having better career stats than Johnny Unitas and Otto Graham can be easily explained. Jan Stenerud might be more dominant over his peers than say Justin Tucker, but Tucker is clearly a far better kicker. It’s still snap, hold and kick from 7 yards back through goalposts which are actually narrower today than they were in the 60s and 70s.

It would be unfair to say Tucker lacks dominance over his peers just because the overall standard of kicking today is so much higher than during Stenerud’s era. Punters and kickers are pretty much reaching their limit. Tucker is a 90% career FG kicker. There’s very little room for improvement.

The thing is, and Ruppert can show it, Tucker IS very dominant over his peers. And if you see the NFLGSIS stat FG Plus or Minus (FGPlusMinus = Summation of (If Field Goal made, 1 - rolling two year League average success rate from that distance, if missed, negative rolling two year League average success rate from that distance)

Tucker is VERY dominant over his peers, even though the standards have been raised

Same is True of Hekker and Morestead, they dominate in Net Yards over Average = Sum( (Yards - ReturnYards - 20 * Touchbacks - (Rolling Two Year League Average Net Yards from that Field Position) ) ) / Sum(Punts)

And Lechler is average not dominant. And Hekker and Morestead have kicked in a tougher era than Lechler because standards higher from 2012-2019 than 2000-2017

Net Yards over Average = Sum( (Yards - ReturnYards - 20 * Touchbacks - (Rolling Two Year League Average Net Yards from that Field Position) ) ) / Sum(Punts)

Lechler ranks
2000 -2
2001 -13
2002 -23
2003 -4
2004 -8
2005 -16
2006 -22
2007 -2
2008 -2
2009 -1
2010 -2
2011 -5
2012 -23
2013 -15
2014 -22
2015 -26
2016 -16
2017 -14t
18 seasons
7 in the top 5


Hekker
2012 -21
2013 -1
2014 -4
2015 -1
2016 -1
2017 -2
2018 -2
2019 -20
8 seasons
6 in top 5

I am not saying Hekker should be on All-time list for same reason, I guess Aaron Donald was excluded
and also Justin Tucker---longevity

But Hekker has aleady nearly matched what Lechler did, without yards per return issues
and the difference in gross minus net-----Hekker is #1 all-time in both net and
gross minus net and #1 all time in In the 20/touchback ratio (over 8-1)

Lechler is good, but he;s not an all-timer. He didn't dominate his era in the
important stats and metrics.

Hekker is awesome too and I wouldn’t quibble with anyone taking him over Lechler. He should’ve been nominated, as well as Tucker.

Hekker looks to have had a 6-year peak of elite production from 2013-18, compared to Lechler’s elite five year stretch of 2007-11. We’ll have to see how the rest of Hekker’s career pans out but he might never get back into that Top 5. Right now 6/8 looks much better of course than 5/18, but there will be a natural decline in rankings due to Father Time and some great competition from younger punters like Michael Dickson hitting their prime.

Fully approve the Tucker/Hekker mentions and agree with them being the dominant players at their positions right now. Tucker is probably the BOAT if not yet GOAT kicker, and I'd still say Sammy Baugh at punter (his omission is just weird considering Lary), but hard to say Hekker's not top 4. Not sure I'd put them on the team, but Jerrel Wilson and Morten Anderson getting nominated over them is yet another clear example of the bias against players currently in their primes that has corrupted this vote so far. Really hoping it changes, but I think they've already knocked out the actual best picks from this era. I wonder if they'll have the gall to not nominate Rodgers?

boknows34 wrote:Hekker is awesome too and I wouldn’t quibble with anyone taking him over Lechler. He should’ve been nominated, as well as Tucker.

Hekker looks to have had a 6-year peak of elite production from 2013-18, compared to Lechler’s elite five year stretch of 2007-11. We’ll have to see how the rest of Hekker’s career pans out but he might never get back into that Top 5. Right now 6/8 looks much better of course than 5/18, but there will be a natural decline in rankings due to Father Time and some great competition from younger punters like Michael Dickson hitting their prime.

We're going to have to agree to disagree.

The point is Lechler's "peak" was not that great. He was not that "elite"

During that time he got his net punting from a huge gross net, so good that his 49.4 gross
only yielded a 41.6 net. And during that 5-year period you called a "peak" he allowed 4 touchdowns on returns
----and don't tell me none of that was on him. Sure, some of it is on the coverage unit, but as has been discussed
he outkicked his coverage and perhaps his quest for a 50-yard gross, he was outkicking his coverage.

The point wasn't to say Hekker is better because of 6/8 except to show what dominance over an era is.

His inside the 20 to touchback ratio was 3.2 to 1 which was below the average

There were better punters from 2007-11

Lechler's "peak" is based on the same thing, over and over....a huge gross. And that huge gross was a double-edge
sword and if he tried to control it he could have been an all-time great rather than maybe a top 5 since 2000.

Som when you say "Hekker was awesome, too" it suggests Lechler was awesome. He really wasn't. Good, not great

Does anyone have Ray Guy’s net averages or 20/TB ratio?

boknows34 wrote:Does anyone have Ray Guy’s net averages or 20/TB ratio?

I do, but what relevance is it? I've got league averages since 1976 and
pretty close to complete from late-1960s

JohnTurney wrote:

boknows34 wrote:Does anyone have Ray Guy’s net averages or 20/TB ratio?

I do, but what relevance is it? I've got league averages since 1976 and
pretty close to complete from late-1960s

Just thought a few of us here would be interested to how Guy matched up as those numbers aren’t easily found. PFR don’t include such data.