HOF question

Reaser
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Re: HOF question

Post by Reaser »

NWebster wrote:Acknowledging the possibility I missed your sarcasm, sorry, you and I tend to be on the same page.
You missed it, ha.

That the numbers are inflated is pretty widely known - though I suppose we kind of live in a 'bubble' here so what's common perhaps isn't to someone who just recently signed up.

That said, you provided the answer for him and it was ignored. Hence, my question.
JuggernautJ
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Location: NinerLand, Ca.

Re: HOF question

Post by JuggernautJ »

There's nothing wrong with having a favorite player and believing him to be better than the consensus opinion.
We all have favorite players who we think are more praiseworthy than they probably really are.

And there's nothing wrong with coming to a new subject (like football history) with a lot to learn.
I've learned SO much over the decades that I've been here... I don't want to discourage a newcomer.
Please, let's encourage the interest and foster a new student of the game.

Once he has the knowledge to make an informed decision he's bound to agree with us. ;)
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Bryan
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Re: HOF question

Post by Bryan »

I remember an article in the 1991 or 1992 "Team NFL" magazine (the off-shoot of the Prolog) which discussed 'normalizing' team-generated tackle stats. It was before the metric heyday, and the premise of the article was Jessie Tuggle leading the Falcons with 207 tackles and Dave Waymer leading the Niners with 87 tackles...was it really possible for one team's leading tackler to have more than twice as many tackles as another team's leading tackler?

The article looked at the "tackle opportunities" for each team, compared them to the individual tackle numbers sent out by the team's media dept, and then came up with some inflation adjustment...a "Tuggle tackle" was worth 0.65 while a "Waymer tackle" was worth 1.25. After all the math work, the conclusion was basic common sense: the players on bad defenses made more tackles than the players on good defenses because they are on the field more, and the ILBs/MLBs generally made the most tackles.

In regards to Tuggle, it showed that while he was among the league leaders in tackles, he wasn't the #1 guy nor was accumulating tackles at a noticeably higher rate than other ILB/MLBs. He was mixed in with Al Smith, Kyle Clifton, Larry Kelm, etc.
JWL
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Re: HOF question

Post by JWL »

This is a really silly thing that should have a simple answer. One should just be able to look at a game and see that Team A ran 74 plays from scrimmage and had, let's say, six special teams plays that would have ended with that team's ball carrier being tackled. Subtract touchdowns, kneel downs (not totally sure on this, maybe a defender does get credit for a tackle on these), incompletions and interceptions, and let's say there were 54 plays where someone was tackled or pushed out of bounds. Well, then the opponent's tackle total should add up to 54. Whether the scorekeeper or team or whoever wants to give credit to four players for one tackle- fine, they each get 0.25 credit for the tackle- or three or two or one, the total should equal 54.

I get the problem with having to analyze this with games from olden times, but that we still struggle with tackle statistics nowadays is absurd to me. I understand the difficulty regarding how to give credit to players. There was a great article in the SI NFL preview issue on this last year. However, the actual total tackles in a given game should not be a chore. At the end of the year, there should not be some 13-game guy on a 7-9 Falcons team with 235 tackles and the Buccaneers leader in tackles (a guy who played every defensive snap) has 91.
JohnTurney
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Re: HOF question

Post by JohnTurney »

Bryan wrote:I remember an article in the 1991 or 1992 "Team NFL" magazine (the off-shoot of the Prolog) which discussed 'normalizing' team-generated tackle stats. It was before the metric heyday, and the premise of the article was Jessie Tuggle leading the Falcons with 207 tackles and Dave Waymer leading the Niners with 87 tackles...was it really possible for one team's leading tackler to have more than twice as many tackles as another team's leading tackler?

The article looked at the "tackle opportunities" for each team, compared them to the individual tackle numbers sent out by the team's media dept, and then came up with some inflation adjustment...a "Tuggle tackle" was worth 0.65 while a "Waymer tackle" was worth 1.25. After all the math work, the conclusion was basic common sense: the players on bad defenses made more tackles than the players on good defenses because they are on the field more, and the ILBs/MLBs generally made the most tackles.

In regards to Tuggle, it showed that while he was among the league leaders in tackles, he wasn't the #1 guy nor was accumulating tackles at a noticeably higher rate than other ILB/MLBs. He was mixed in with Al Smith, Kyle Clifton, Larry Kelm, etc.

It comes down to that, yes, oppotunites, but it also comes down to was quality control coaches call an "assist". I've look pretty close, and on a gambook there are solos and assist which are totaled to get "tackles". That number is often similar to the tackles that coaches come up with. The issue is that there is then what a coach calls an "assist" and when you add tackles to the coaches "assist" you come up with guys with 200 or more tackles.

In 1977 Alzado had 77 tackles (solo and assists) the coaches credit him with 80, pretty close, but then there is another category of assists which was a lot, cannot remember off-hand but like maybe 40, which gave him 120 or so "tackles"
falconfan58
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Re: HOF question

Post by falconfan58 »

Ok,I'll admit I'm a little biased when it comes to JT,he was the leading career tackler at our college,he went to college with my wife and played with my brother-in-law.But,I still think he's one of the best MLBs I've seen,if he played in another city,he'd already be in the HOF,and all those guys that were nominated for DPOY,how long were their careers?Did they play in a Super Bowl?Yeah,I know they lost,but how many players ever get the chance to play in one?I know the NFL was most likely hoping for a Vikings-Broncos SB,but they can in large thank Anderson for missing that FG,which he hadn't done all reg.season.How many of those players that were nominated for DPOY led the league more than once in anything?Other players got the honors and glory,while JT went out and played the position better then most,despite being told he was too short.How many teams would have liked to have him playing the ILB spot?I was not trying to start an disagreement,that's what makes sports great,you can have varing points of view.
NWebster
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Re: HOF question

Post by NWebster »

JWL and JT are on to it. I have a personal approach Runs - Rushing TD'S allowed + completions - passing TD's allowed = tackle opportunities. I allow for 1.25 times this number accounting for the occasional assist. Any team credited with more than this I scale the number down to this level. I simply call it adjusted total tackles. It's not perfect but it adjusts the total outliers. Those are, late 70's Eagles and Giants, mid 70's to mid 80's Jets, early 80's Saints, mid 70's to late 90's Falcons, mid 90's Bucs.

I actually recall the exact same article, it was pretty good.

If we want to really start an argument we could probably ask that someone define a tackle.
NWebster
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Re: HOF question

Post by NWebster »

Reaser wrote:
NWebster wrote:Acknowledging the possibility I missed your sarcasm, sorry, you and I tend to be on the same page.
You missed it, ha.
.
Take the radar down for maintenance every once and a while and one of these slips through.
bachslunch
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Re: HOF question

Post by bachslunch »

Good discussion, and agreed that Tuggle doesn't have much of a HoF case, if any. Definite HotVG type, though.
rhickok1109
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Re: HOF question

Post by rhickok1109 »

NWebster wrote:Here are Tuggle's numbers year-by-year, from play by plays, reinforcing BS stats doesn't make him an HOF'er. BTW, did anyone here watch Tuggle and think, "wow, i'm watching something special"?
I think that's a very good question to ask about any HOF candidate. My answer to this specific question is an emphatic "No." I think Tuggle was an above-average player who did his job well but he never made my eyes pop the way guys like Singletary or Lewis did, just to name a couple.
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