Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Don't forget Orlando Pace was on that team, too....

3rd down conversions vs Rams were very low in every game.

Opp winning percentage - I've said it before and I"m just going to say it one last time with more detail - I just don't think that's the best statistic. First, of course the best teams are going to water down their opponents' winning percentage with victories against them. Secondly, a lot depends on when teams play each other - injuries, weather conditions, post-trade deadline, a team in Week 1 might be a lot different than it will be during Week 12. Which opponents played tougher interconference games on the road? So maybe they were the better team and would have won at home on an early season date but instead they lost on the road late in the year in abysmal conditions. Or maybe their kicker missed a FG at the end. Way too many variables to weigh for me to personally put much into the Opp WP. It's kind of like the old joke that a team under .500 should have been ranked number one because they beat a team that beat another team that beat Alambama.

There is no doubt that the Rams were awesome and deserved to be in the Super Bowl. Same with the Vikings, Dolphins, you name it. Clearly superior teams.

GameBeforeTheMoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 3:23 pm Don't forget Orlando Pace was on that team, too....

3rd down conversions vs Rams were very low in every game.

Opp winning percentage - I've said it before and I"m just going to say it one last time with more detail - I just don't think that's the best statistic. First, of course the best teams are going to water down their opponents' winning percentage with victories against them.

The simple way to avoid that is to use opponents' records against other NFL teams. Many years ago, I developed a program to calculate what I called "true winning percentage" using that method and an interative technique. (I wrote it for a TRS-80 Model III, which gives you an idea of how long ago it was.)

rhickok1109 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:38 pm

GameBeforeTheMoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 3:23 pm Don't forget Orlando Pace was on that team, too....

3rd down conversions vs Rams were very low in every game.

Opp winning percentage - I've said it before and I"m just going to say it one last time with more detail - I just don't think that's the best statistic. First, of course the best teams are going to water down their opponents' winning percentage with victories against them.

The simple way to avoid that is to use opponents' records against other NFL teams. Many years ago, I developed a program to calculate what I called "true winning percentage" using that method and an interative technique. (I wrote it for a TRS-80 Model III, which gives you an idea of how long ago it was.)

Oh, I love that you did that on a Radio Shack computer! I miss Radio Shack - much like I miss football played on grass. I didn't know they made more than one TRS-80 Model. My first computer was the Commodore 64 - although at that age I wasn't using it to create winning percentage spreadsheets.

Your "true winning percentage" is a better idea than what's used, that's for sure. Still a lot of variables with opponents' winning percentage as I mentioned above, but to take out the W/L against that particular team helps make it more accurate.