Frank Gore for HOF?

[Rupert Patrick]

Jerome Bettis to me has always been a "no duh" HOF'er and I'd take him over Gore quite easily.

Bettis also played in a number of big playoff games, most of which the Steelers lost until his final season. Gore played in a few in SF. but Bettis in a way is defined by coming back for one final season and helping to leading the Steelers to a Lombardi Trophy in his final game. I think the teams you play on does play a factor to an extent, and Bettis did play on better teams than Gore did.

[L.C. Greenwood]

A great barometer of RB excellence is 100 yard games

Might be true, maybe not. Anything more systematic that backs this assertion up would be welcome. Am unsure, myself.

and only four backs in NFL history have more than Jerome.

Bettis also had a long career. Am wondering how this works out adjusted to career length.

I don't have the list of top ten career 100 yard game leaders, but it's safe to assume they're likely all Hall of Famers. Bettis is right there with Payton, LT, Dickerson, Smith, etc. in this category. Being able to take the punishment over time is what these great backs had in common. I also think it's rare for a HOF back to have six 100 yard games in their next to last season. New England's Blount is a current big back, but nowhere near the production of a Bettis.

[Reaser]

Since we're using stats ...

... and Gore apparently "needs more production" before he's on Bettis' level.

In 11 seasons and 5 games (169 career games) he has 15,588 yards from scrimmage.
Bettis in 13 seasons (192 career games) had 15,111 yards from scrimmage.

Gore in his 11 previous seasons had 8 1,000 yard seasons, averaged over 4.1 ypc for all of them.

Bettis in 13 seasons also had 8 1,000 yard seasons, only averaged over 4.0 ypc for half of them (i.e. needed a million carries to get to a 1,000 yards because he was so "productive")

Yup, Gore definitely needs more production to be on the level of Bettis . . .

Let's look at Jerome's Steelers career and the "key role in a longer run of success for his franchise" he had.

Year before he joined the Steelers they were playing in a little game called the Super Bowl. Sure, Bettis gets credit for other things he didn't do so lets go ahead and give him this too and say he magically was the key to their 1995 season.

His first two real years in Pittsburgh he was productive. He was productive as part of a perennial playoff team that he joined - a team we can probably assume would have been in the playoffs without him since they were making the playoffs before Bettis got there anyways.

By his third year in Pittsburgh the transition is complete and Bettis is getting a million carries and he promptly plays a key role in leading the Steelers to 3 consective seasons of not making the playoffs - including the only two seasons he started all 16 games. Arguably the best ran franchise in the NFL and a great coach, once the team was fully built around Bettis they have losing seasons. "Key role in the long run of success", or at least the end of a run of success that others had built?

That's fine, because 2001 things were back to normal for Pittsburgh. Helped by the fact that Bettis was injured roughly 2/3rds of the way through the season, yet the Steelers kept winning. Kept rushing for a lot of yards and finished the season 1st in rushing. Interesting. Almost like the team was a good rushing team and it didn't really matter who carried the ball. Of note, Zereoue averaged more yards per carry than Bettis. Shocking.

2001 Playoffs Bettis is back and ready to go. Nope, injection debacle and he can't play in the Divisional Round. Steelers win anyways. Hilariously Bettis STILL gets the credit for this win even though he didn't play. The team magically was motivated to win (a playoff game mind you) once they found out he couldn't play so all credit goes to Bettis for this one.

Evidently they weren't as motivated to win when he actually played in the AFC Championship the next week and had a key 9 carries for 8 yards performance.

The rest of his Steelers career was basically Pittsburgh trying to replace him with Zereoue, then Staley, and finally Parker. With Bettis getting the short-yardage TD's and a real productive 3.3 yards per carry.

Meanwhile Gore joined what was arguably at the time one of the most disfunctional teams in the NFL and was one of the few bright spots on a terribly ran franchise. Then when they finally got a good coach he was the starting RB on teams that went to 3-straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl apperance. Starting, not a backup or role player.

Lets compare their playoff careers since being a key to the success of a team comes in the playoffs. Key to the success, like when Bettis fumbled against the Colts and almost cost the Steelers their eventual Super Bowl season.

Gore's teams went 5-3 in the 3 seasons of playoff appearances in his 10 seasons with the 49ers. As a starter his team went 5-3.

Bettis obviously joined a much better team and the Steelers had 14 playoff games in 6 seasons of playoff apps in his 10 years with the Steelers. Digging a little deeper on him being a key to their success.

He was active for all 14 of those playoff games but only played in 13 (due to the previously mentioned injection issue) ... Note: They won when he didn't play.

He was the starter in 7 of those 14 playoff games, that's half for a player that was so key to the success over all those years. That's also one less playoff GS than Gore.

Record in the games Bettis started? 3-4.
Record when the Steelers started another RB? 6-1.

That's 6-1 with Amos and Fast Willie leading the way.

In Gore's 8 career playoff games to date he's had 646 yards rushing (4.61 ypc) and 813 yards from scrimmage.

Bettis 13 career playoff games he had 674 yards rushing (3.39 ypc) and 731 yards from scrimmage.

Hmm. These "stats" aren't helping out Bettis so lets go back to the regular season.

Gore's only season when he got over 300 carries (312) he had a career-best 1,695 yards rushing (5.4 ypc) ... Bettis needed 375 carries to get his career best 1,665 yards (4.4 ypc). That's 30 yards less than Gore on 63 more rushing attempts and a full yard per carry less. He even had one less TD run.

Stats ... ha.

I prefer to use my eyes and general knowledge of football. Gore is a much better RB and football player than Bettis was. Regular season, playoffs, Super Bowl, early career, mid-career, late career, at their peak, etc.

And I never watched Gore and thought "that's a HOF back". But hey, stats!

[bachslunch]

A great barometer of RB excellence is 100 yard games

Might be true, maybe not. Anything more systematic that backs this assertion up would be welcome. Am unsure, myself.

and only four backs in NFL history have more than Jerome.

Bettis also had a long career. Am wondering how this works out adjusted to career length.

I don't have the list of top ten career 100 yard game leaders, but it's safe to assume they're likely all Hall of Famers. Bettis is right there with Payton, LT, Dickerson, Smith, etc. in this category. Being able to take the punishment over time is what these great backs had in common. I also think it's rare for a HOF back to have six 100 yard games in their next to last season. New England's Blount is a current big back, but nowhere near the production of a Bettis.

A couple things:

-if I learned nothing else from reading Bill James, I realized that it's wise to question one's assumptions. Sometimes they're correct, but not always. And the assertion that the number of 100 yard games is a great barometer of RB excellence is an assumption that would be interesting to examine. Since you brought it up, am thinking it's up to you to test it, and with good substance. Am especially interested to see how this controls for games played, era played, and such. Given Reaser's excellent reply, my guess is you'll have a lot to account for.

-do you consider Gale Sayers to be a great back? His career is short so longevity doesn't factor in here.

[JWL]

New England's Blount is a current big back, but nowhere near the production of a Bettis.

I only noted that Blount is pretty good. My point was that there are some tubby running backs who are doing alright in the league these days. This idea that Bettis is likely the last chubby guy who will achieve success as a running back is not something I can buy. As a whole, the USA is as obese as ever. I bet there will be a number of other porkers in the future who will have 4.5 to 4.7 speed who will carry a football good enough to be a factor in the NFL.

I don't see why Bettis' belly should be used as any type of mark for or against him in Hall of Fame arguments. Similarly, I don't think Steve Smith's height should be used by anybody to give him as boost for a Hall spot.

[L.C. Greenwood]

New England's Blount is a current big back, but nowhere near the production of a Bettis.

I only noted that Blount is pretty good. My point was that there are some tubby running backs who are doing alright in the league these days. This idea that Bettis is likely the last chubby guy who will achieve success as a running back is not something I can buy. As a whole, the USA is as obese as ever. I bet there will be a number of other porkers in the future who will have 4.5 to 4.7 speed who will carry a football good enough to be a factor in the NFL.

I don't see why Bettis' belly should be used as any type of mark for or against him in Hall of Fame arguments. Similarly, I don't think Steve Smith's height should be used by anybody to give him as boost for a Hall spot.

The HOF does tend to elect players who did something different, and excelling at a unique size would certainly apply in this case. I do think Steve Smith is a HOF receiver, and overcoming a lack of height should work in his favor.

Now let me address a couple of previous points brought up about Jerome Bettis, I agree he wasn't a good postseason player. But his production undeniably played a key role in the success of those Steelers teams, helping them to the playoffs. The key offensive players who put up impressive numbers during a long career for winning teams should always be recognized. Amos Zeroue only arrived late in Bettis' career, when the inevitable toll of all those carries started adding up. And as I noted before, Bettis just wasn't going to be a factor in the receiving game like other backs, it's tough to get separation at 250 plus pounds. It's like talking about Dan Marino as a running threat, simply not part of what he did well.

So Gore was a better receiver, but nowhere near the physical force Bettis was. Grinding down defenses wasn't his forte, and Gore just didn't instill the fear of the fifth all leading rusher at the time of Jerome's retirement. Surprised it took so long for Bettis to get elected, but the resume is just too impressive.

[JWL]

New England's Blount is a current big back, but nowhere near the production of a Bettis.

I only noted that Blount is pretty good. My point was that there are some tubby running backs who are doing alright in the league these days. This idea that Bettis is likely the last chubby guy who will achieve success as a running back is not something I can buy. As a whole, the USA is as obese as ever. I bet there will be a number of other porkers in the future who will have 4.5 to 4.7 speed who will carry a football good enough to be a factor in the NFL.

I don't see why Bettis' belly should be used as any type of mark for or against him in Hall of Fame arguments. Similarly, I don't think Steve Smith's height should be used by anybody to give him as boost for a Hall spot.

The HOF does tend to elect players who did something different, and excelling at a unique size would certainly apply in this case. I do think Steve Smith is a HOF receiver, and overcoming a lack of height should work in his favor.

I am much very much in favor of Smith being inducted into the PFHOF. (He was just the best example I could make for my point.) Personally, I don't view his lack of great height as being a factor. The voters do elect players who did something different but I am not sure any were enshrined even partly based on their size.

[conace21]

I mentioned in another post, Bettis was arguably the second best back in the league in 1993, and at least the third best in 1996 and 1997, (He actually made AP First Team All Pro in 1996, ahead of rushing champion Barry Sanders.) He was never the best player at his position, but honestly, how many HOF players ever are? He had three elite seasons, and half of a fourth in 2001.
He is also due credit for the Steelers' success in 1996 and 1997. Yes, they had just made the Super Bowl the prior year, but they lost their quarterback after doing so (not to mention their best pass rusher in Kevin Greene.) If the team had say, retained Bam Morris instead of signing Bettis, they likely would have at least made the playoffs as a wild card. They were too good on defense to collapse. But Bettis was the driving force to keep that team elite.

[Reaser]

He was never the best player at his position, but honestly, how many HOF players ever are?

Here's the RB's who's careers overlapped (played at least one season during Bettis' career) who are in the HOF:

Marcus Allen
Eric Dickerson
Marshall Faulk
Curtis Martin
Barry Sanders
Emmitt Smith
Thurman Thomas

All of them can say they were the best RB at one point. Next level, 6 of the 7 not only can say they were the best at their position but they can say they were the best player at any position at one point in their career (or at least we can say 6 of them won MVP/Player of the Year awards).

If we're in agreement Tomlinson will be in the HOF then you can add another name to that list and to the MVP list.

Terrell Davis has been a finalist so maybe for him, if ever gets in then that's another that was the best at his position and another that can say not only the best RB, not only the best offensive player, but the best player overall.

So the question, how many HOF players are ever the best at their position? Well, in this specific case the answer is all of them. Except Bettis, of course.

[bachslunch]

I'm not surprised Jerome Bettis waited a few years before being elected. As mentioned already, his peak (being best in the league) was minimal -- his reputation rests almost entirely on being a long-career compiler. He was also pretty much a non-factor as a receiver, had a fairly low average yards per rush, played on run-heavy offenses which helped him compile, and wasn't necessarily elite at scoring TDs or avoiding fumbles. Have seen some folks even question whether he belongs in, though I wouldn't go that far. For me, Bettis is a reasonable big-hall/second-tier HoF choice.