Time's running out for Webb, Cunningham, McDonald and others.

[Bryan]

Bryan won't win any fans in Houston with his take on Andre Johnson

Whenever I saw Johnson play, I always thought "shouldn't he be a little bit better?". He had years where he'd be targeted 160+ times and score 4 TDs. I usually wound up with Johnson on my fantasy team, and his performance would fluctuate between below average and above average. He was rarely 'great'. Maybe that has biased my opinion on Johnson. Would be interested in hearing others' takes.

[Bryan]

Bryan, I am curious what 16 modern players you come up with that are all better than the rejects you highlighted. To me it looks like you would end up with classes below the normal 5 inductees, but don't want to get too ahead of myself with projections.

(Andre Johnson, Tim McDonald, Leslie O'neal, Patrick Willis, Kevin Williams, Torry Holt, Neil Smith, Ricky Watters, Eric Allen, Steve Wisniewski, Randall Cunningham, Richmond Webb, Devin Hester, Nick Mangold, Richard Sherman, Darren Woodson)

At WR if AJohnson and Holt fall short it doesn't seem like anyone else has a compelling case beyond Fitzgerald. Additionally if 5x All Pro/All Decade players in Patrick Willis and Kevin Williams are insufficient that likely caps MLB with Kuechly and no DTs. Any safeties out there that thread the needle above McDonald and Woodson? Perhaps. Looking for CBs with more impressive careers than Richard Sherman seems few and far between, etc. Having a favorite of Willie Anderson over Webb or something like Logan Mankins over Wisniewski seems within possibility but would be curious on specifics.

This is a valid point. The Class of 2020 did potential 'irreparable' harm to the HOF in lowering the bar and putting in a bunch of guys all at once, which kind of makes the subsequent classes more 'watered-down' as a result. I'd have to see who the eligible players are at the time and then pick 5 (which is a ridiculous rule, BTW). Its possible that my standards are too high.

[Brian wolf]

Hester will be elected, there is no doubt but I will always feel uneasy about a player making the HOF with only 38 career TDs, especially while Shaun Alexander has 120 counting postseason.

Johnson was penalized with bad QBs and bad teams, which might be why his TD numbers were lower but some voters will choose him for representing the Texans franchise, right or wrong.

[readjack]

This is a valid point. The Class of 2020 did potential 'irreparable' harm to the HOF in lowering the bar and putting in a bunch of guys all at once, which kind of makes the subsequent classes more 'watered-down' as a result. I'd have to see who the eligible players are at the time and then pick 5 (which is a ridiculous rule, BTW). Its possible that my standards are too high.

The five modern-era members of the class of 2024 will come from this list of 173 nominees:

https://profootballhof.me/173Nominees

Every player who we elected in our exercise who is currently eligible (so not Brady, Gronk, Watt, Fitz, etc.) is on that list of 173.

The following players who finished in the top 25 remain eligible in 2024:

* Finalists, finished in the top 10, order unknown: Jared Allen, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne
* Finalists, finished in the top 15, order unknown: Willie Anderson, Dwight Freeney, Devin Hester, Patrick Willis, Darren Woodson
* Semifinalists, order unknown: Eric Allen, Anquan Boldin, Jahri Evans, London Fletcher, James Harrison, Rodney Harrison, Robert Mathis, Steve Smith, Fred Taylor, Hines Ward, Ricky Watters, Vince Wilfork

Of those, most times as a finalist, sorted first by most recent finals and second by most times as a semifinalist:
4 - Torry Holt (2020-2023, semifinalist 2015-2019, eligible 2015)
4 - Reggie Wayne (2020-2023, eligible 2020)
3 - Jared Allen (2021-2023, eligible 2021)
2 - Patrick Willis (2022-2023, semifinalist 2020-2021, eligible 2020)
2 - Andre Johnson (2022-2023, eligible 2022)
2 - Devin Hester (2022-2023, eligible 2022)
2 - Willie Anderson (2022-2023, semifinalist 2021, eligible 2014)
1 - Darren Woodson (2023, semifinalist 2015, 2017, 2019-2022, eligible 2009)
1 - Dwight Freeney (2023, eligible 2023)
0 - Hines Ward (7x semifinalist, '17-'23, eligible 2017)
0 - Fred Taylor (4x semifinalist '20-'23, eligible 2016)
0 - Eric Allen (3x semifinalist '21-'23, eligible 2007)
0 - Ricky Watters (3x semifinalist '20, '22-'23, eligible 2007)
0 - Anquan Boldin (2x semifinalist '22-'23, eligible 2022)
0 - Robert Mathis (2x semifinalist '22-'23, eligible 2022)
0 - Steve Smith (2x semifinalist '22-'23, eligible 2022)
0 - Vince Wilfork (2x semifinalist '22-'23, eligible 2022)
0 - Rodney Harrison (2x semifinalist '20, '22, eligible 2014)
0 - Jahri Evans (1x semifinalist '23, eligible 2023)
0 - James Harrison (1x semifinalist '23, eligible 2023)
0 - London Fletcher (1x semifinalist '23, eligible 2019)

Possible first-ballot inductees: Julius Peppers, Antonio Gates

Other key first-year eligible players: Haloti Ngata

Others who have been a semifinalist:
2018, 2020 - Simeon Rice
2021 - Cornelius Bennett
2018 - Leslie O'Neal
2014 - Steve Wisniewski

[readjack]

Hester will be elected, there is no doubt but I will always feel uneasy about a player making the HOF with only 38 career TDs, especially while Shaun Alexander has 120 counting postseason.

Johnson was penalized with bad QBs and bad teams, which might be why his TD numbers were lower but some voters will choose him for representing the Texans franchise, right or wrong.

I'm a huge Shaun Alexander guy. He would be my next RB in, though I'd lean to Watters just for the sake of eligibility remaining.

Hester's TDs aren't a one-to-one against offensive players. The gap between him and other returners is the point. He has 20 return TDs: 14 punt, 5 kickoff, one field goal. HIs records look like this:

Non-offensive touchdowns
1. Hester - 20
2. Deion - 19 (10 on defense)

Special teams touchdowns
1. Hester - 20
2. Brian Mitchell - 13

Combined KR/PR touchdowns
1. Hester - 19
2. Brian Mitchell - 13

Punt return touchdowns
1. Hester - 14
2. Eric Metcalf - 10

And while Hester is not in first place in KR TDs, he and Dante Hall are the only players with 5+ KR TDs who has at least 5+ PR TDs:

9 kick return TDs
Patterson - 0 PR TDs

8 kick return TDs
Cribbs - 3 PR TDs
L. Washington - 0 PR TDs

6 kick return TDs
D. Hall - 6 PR TDs
Gray, Matson - 3 PR TDs
Sayers - 2 PR TDs
Travis Williams - 0 PR TDs

5 kick return TDs
HESTER - 14 PR TDs
Jacoby Jones - 4 PR TDs
Bobby Mitchell, Rossum - 3 PR TDs
Abe Woodson - 2 PR TDs
Timmy Brown - 1 PR TDs
Bates, Harvin, McGee, Miller - 0 PR TDs

[rewing84]

Bryan, I am curious what 16 modern players you come up with that are all better than the rejects you highlighted. To me it looks like you would end up with classes below the normal 5 inductees, but don't want to get too ahead of myself with projections.

(Andre Johnson, Tim McDonald, Leslie O'neal, Patrick Willis, Kevin Williams, Torry Holt, Neil Smith, Ricky Watters, Eric Allen, Steve Wisniewski, Randall Cunningham, Richmond Webb, Devin Hester, Nick Mangold, Richard Sherman, Darren Woodson)

At WR if AJohnson and Holt fall short it doesn't seem like anyone else has a compelling case beyond Fitzgerald. Additionally if 5x All Pro/All Decade players in Patrick Willis and Kevin Williams are insufficient that likely caps MLB with Kuechly and no DTs. Any safeties out there that thread the needle above McDonald and Woodson? Perhaps. Looking for CBs with more impressive careers than Richard Sherman seems few and far between, etc. Having a favorite of Willie Anderson over Webb or something like Logan Mankins over Wisniewski seems within possibility but would be curious on specifics.

This is a valid point. The Class of 2020 did potential 'irreparable' harm to the HOF in lowering the bar and putting in a bunch of guys all at once, which kind of makes the subsequent classes more 'watered-down' as a result. I'd have to see who the eligible players are at the time and then pick 5 (which is a ridiculous rule, BTW). Its possible that my standards are too high.

Lets Just say you and i have different standards and end it there