If Calvin Johnson retires, is he a HOFer?

[Bryan]

9 year career...5 pro bowls...3-time first team consensus All-Pro...single-season receiving yardage record...twice led NFL in receiving yardage for a season...27th in career receiving yards, 22nd in career receiving TDs (1 less than Tommy McDonald, 18 more than Michael Irvin)...

Kind of an interesting comparison to Sterling Sharpe, who played 2 fewer seasons than Johnson but has the same 5PB/3AP resume and led the NFL in more single-season categories (3X receptions, 1X yardage, 2X rec TDs) than Johnson.

My first thought on Johnson was that he is a HOFer. I think he and Larry Fitzgerald were/are the best WRs of their era. But the more I look at the numbers, the more I think that he might not get in to Canton (and Fitzgerald might not, either). He has 2 average seasons, 2 above average seasons, and 5 really good seasons. I was surprised that in his monster 2012 seasons of 122 receptions and 1964 yards, he only scored 5 times.

[BD Sullivan]

His numbers are too good not to go in and, like you said, he was among the elite receivers of his era. Earl Campbell only had five good years (of his eight total) and he went in on the first ballot.

[JWL]

Nine years is not really a short career. It is not a lengthy career, either. I was critical of Johnson his first three or four years because he compiled a lot of empty stats. I did not do any great study of it but there were quite a few games where he didn't do much by way of impact plays until the 4th quarter when the Lions were trailing by 14 or more points. Of course, he was drawing double coverage often. Again, I didn't do any type of involved research and didn't have all-22 footage to view.

He has the stats and honors. He would pass the eye test for most football fans who can see. One would think he would be inducted with ease (meaning first few ballots) but PFHOF voters have been wildly inconsistent at best and clueless at worst when it comes to inducting wide receivers so who knows.

In this era, I have liked Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith and even Brandon Marshall more because I never recall criticizing those guys for disappearing for large stretches of games. But, again, no all-22 footage for me and then there is the double coverage aspect and also maybe lack of other playmakers on the Detroit offense and stuff like that.

[James]

I think he is a Hall of Famer, but might not be a first ballot guy. To me, Calvin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were/are the three best WR's of their era, nobody close, in my opinion.

[JohnTurney]

I think he is a Hall of Famer, but might not be a first ballot guy. To me, Calvin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were/are the three best WR's of their era, nobody close, in my opinion.

I agree with that, Megatgron, Fitz and Andre Johnson were the 3,to me, who had it all (post Randy Moss)

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

I would think he is a HOFer, but I see Sterling Sharpe as a more clear-cut example. He put up great numbers with lesser QBs for his first four seasons, and his career ended by an injury, rather than by his own choice.

Calvin will probably get in, but there are going to be a lot of receivers who get in before him -- those currently eligible, some soon to be eligible, and likely one or two (like Andre Johnson) who are stronger candidates and retire a year or two after him.

[bachslunch]

I would think he is a HOFer, but I see Sterling Sharpe as a more clear-cut example. He put up great numbers with lesser QBs for his first four seasons, and his career ended by an injury, rather than by his own choice.

Calvin will probably get in, but there are going to be a lot of receivers who get in before him -- those currently eligible, some soon to be eligible, and likely one or two (like Andre Johnson) who are stronger candidates and retire a year or two after him.

My guess is also that Johnson is elected but far down the road. But as has been noted above, it's sobering to compare him to Sterling Sharpe, who hasn't got a prayer of getting in except as a Senior likely decades down the road. Sharpe's honors profile is 3/5/none in a seven-season career, while Johnson's is 3/6/??? in a nine-season career. Plus both have about the same amount of "black ink" (times they led the league in a major category). It could go either way, and we shall see in about 5 years or so.

One thing that could help him a little would be if more great players retire early like him and Patrick Willis, which might eventually give short careers a little less stigma with HoF voters. So far, that has been an issue at all positions except running back (Sayers, Campbell, probably Terrell Davis). And short careers have historically hurt the HoF chances of WRs, Mac Speedie, Del Shofner, and Sharpe most notably.

[Ness]

I think he is a Hall of Famer, but might not be a first ballot guy. To me, Calvin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were/are the three best WR's of their era, nobody close, in my opinion.

You don't think Steve Smith is close?

[bachslunch]

I think he is a Hall of Famer, but might not be a first ballot guy. To me, Calvin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were/are the three best WR's of their era, nobody close, in my opinion.

You don't think Steve Smith is close?

If Smith (assuming he has retired) is close (and maybe he is) am guessing Anquan Boldin is close too.

[James]

I think he is a Hall of Famer, but might not be a first ballot guy. To me, Calvin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were/are the three best WR's of their era, nobody close, in my opinion.

You don't think Steve Smith is close?

If Smith (assuming he has retired) is close (and maybe he is) am guessing Anquan Boldin is close too.

They are close, both Smith and Boldin, maybe a very small step down from those three.