Thoughts on 2023 Finalists not named Peggy Parratt

[Sonny9]

While Walker did avg almost 28 per KO return for 3 years he didn't have many returns those seasons. 13 of the teams 51 in '89, 21 of 67 in '94 and 21 of 53 in '96

[JameisBrownston]

How does Walker compare favorably to... Matt Forte, Steven Jackson & Ottis Anderson... Shaun Alexander & Corey Dillon?

The answer to all of the above, really, is "USFL, without which he's inferior". I'm not exactly trying to hide that.

even then you don't have William Andrews or Ray Rice in your "top 5 RBs not in the HOF".

I do have Andrews on my HOVG shortlist, and well, we know what happened to Rice. I was surprised to see Rice had even one 2k year, though. Same with Matt Forte, who... damn, obviously I'm highly familiar with Matt Forte over a very long stretch, but I didn't realize his career added up quite that strongly. And having been familiar with Matt Forte over a very long stretch, I don't think I view him as a HOFer; same for Jackson.

So what I think this really means is that none of the above, save Lewellen, need to be in the HOF at all, because there are too many like them. That includes Barber, Watters, Holmes, Alexander (who also just missed my top 5), etc. There's a reason they aren't getting in, because they all cancel each other out. Which is fine and justified to me. It's kind of hard for me to think of some of these guys as "Philip Rivers" types because many were top-3 or even 1st overall fantasy picks at one point, but that's really what they are. They're the Eli, Rivers, Big Ben, Stafford, and Matty Ice of RBs, except there are even more of them to draw attention off each other.

For the 75% estimate, I used Jim Kelly, as well as Walker himself after joining Dallas, as the model. Those stats you listed are insane, though, and ones I had no idea about. Was USFL specifically built to pump up player stats to extreme levels, like the way Arena Football is? If so, that's not something I'm aware of currently and would cause me to reevaluate. Lowering that to 50%, which actually leaves the USFL years with lower numbers than Walker's next 3 NFL years, still puts his career totals well above everyone else mentioned in this discussion.

[Brian wolf]

My Top 5 backs Not In The HOF

Lewellen
Gilchrist
Craig
Holmes
Anderson/Alexander

[JameisBrownston]

My Top 5 backs Not In The HOF

Lewellen
Gilchrist
Craig
Holmes
Anderson/Alexander

Yep, more of the same bloc of roughly 8-9 fairly interchangeable guys (although Holmes sure did peak), but explain Gilchrist to me thoroughly. Clem Daniels, who isn't even HOVG, seems to have everything over him. If you try to pull a CFL on me, I will not hesitate to hold you to your nonverbal commitment to vote Doug Flutie for HOVG next year.

[Brian wolf]

I know ... with Cookie, Canada doesnt count but his career is so unique. I felt he would have succeeded in any league, any time. A true power back, who could run, block, catch, tackle, cover and kick, if needed. A player who stood out for his time and wanted to play 60 minutes and get paid for everything he could accomplish. The Bills were a Champion that reminded people of an NFL team. It would have been interesting if they could have moved the Super Bowl back two more seasons.

Actually, Doug Flutie is perfect for the HOVG ...

Holmes was the best free agent signing besides Reggie White and Charles Woodson.

OJ Anderson is a comeback story and accoladed in many ways.
Like Craig, an even better story if he doesnt suffer a major, season injury ...

Shaun Alexander scored too many TDs to be ignored by voters. His time will come.

[JameisBrownston]

his career is so unique. I felt he would have succeeded in any league, any time. A true power back, who could run, block, catch, tackle, cover and kick, if needed. A player who stood out for his time and wanted to play 60 minutes and get paid for everything he could accomplish.

This sounds like exactly what one would say to argue for Bo Jackson as a HOFer. Gilchrist on paper seems like something between Jackson if he'd gotten more of the carries those years, and Spec Sanders without the god season. Are you basically saying, like these two, that he's not exactly a snub, just someone who was easily good enough to make it with more meat on the resume? That certainly appears to be true.

Actually, Doug Flutie is perfect for the HOVG ...

Fair enough, I'll hold you to it!

Holmes was the best free agent signing besides Reggie White and Charles Woodson.

??? They were both top-five picks. Are you looking for Kurt Warner?

[Bryan]

For the 75% estimate, I used Jim Kelly, as well as Walker himself after joining Dallas, as the model. Those stats you listed are insane, though, and ones I had no idea about. Was USFL specifically built to pump up player stats to extreme levels, like the way Arena Football is? If so, that's not something I'm aware of currently and would cause me to reevaluate. Lowering that to 50%, which actually leaves the USFL years with lower numbers than Walker's next 3 NFL years, still puts his career totals well above everyone else mentioned in this discussion.

Ripped from the PFRA headlines:

I loved the USFL back in the day, and I think the USFL was better than the AFL in years 1-3 of its existence. That said, how much stock can you put in a league where Cliff Stoudt can go from being the worst starting QB in the NFL to immediately one of the best in the USFL? The USFL was dominated by RBs. The top 5 RBs in the USFL in 1985 were Herschel Walker, Bill Johnson, Gary Anderson, Kelvin Bryant (arguably best USFL player ever) and Mike Rozier. Lets look at their combined 1985 USFL stats versus their combined 1986 NFL stats:

USFL = 1484 carries, 7447 yards, 5.0 YPC, 76 TDs
NFL = 585 carries, 2325 yards, 3.9 YPC, 20 TDs

The drop off is startling. The production is less than 1/3 of the USFL rate.

I guess if you think Walker was that great of a RB, you can project out his first 3 NFL seasons being among the best ever for a rookie RB. You are projecting his 1983 -1985 NFL rushing totals to be 4171 yards, 4.9 YPC and 41 rushing TDs. Walker's actual NFL numbers from his first three seasons of 1986-1988, which were easily the best rushing numbers he ever put up, compare thusly:

83-85: 4171 yards, 4.9, 41 TDs
86-88: 3142 yards, 4.4, 24 TDs

I guess its not as far-fetched as a I thought if Walker had gone to a team like the Rams or Seahawks instead of Dickerson/Warner. But that's a lot of speculation that needs to be done in order to give someone the best stats they've ever had.

[Brian wolf]

Yeah, the Kurt Warner situation was unique but he also came out of left field, Romo as well, though Warner starred in the Arena League. When I have time I will put out an All Free-Agent Team, but the players had to have played for at least two teams with success. It will be interesting to research the players that sustained effort and success--without dogging it after massive contracts--from 1993 onward, though I will look into the past as well ...

[JameisBrownston]

83-85: 4171 yards, 4.9, 41 TDs
86-88: 3142 yards, 4.4, 24 TDs

I guess its not as far-fetched as a I thought if Walker had gone to a team like the Rams or Seahawks instead of Dickerson/Warner. But that's a lot of speculation that needs to be done in order to give someone the best stats they've ever had.

Walker caught the ball much more in the NFL than USFL. I assume a good chunk of that 4000/40 would've been transferred to receiving.

When I have time I will put out an All Free-Agent Team, but the players had to have played for at least two teams with success.

UDFAs only? If not... how will you choose between Brady and Peyton?!

[Brian wolf]

Not sure on that one yet. I may even select a free agent team based on at least two teams in free agency, with a minimum of three teams but looking into it. Alot of player success was due to being traded, so have to get it right on free agency, whether undrafted like Kurt Warner or Manning/Brady switching teams.