Roethlisberger for the HOF?

[rhickok1109]

Hmmm...it seems that everyone who has commented so far agrees that Roethlisberger is a legit Hall-of-Famer, which does surprise me a bit.

I guess maybe my real question, behind the Roethlisberger question, is: How many QBs do you put in the Hall of Fame?

26 QBs from the T-formation era are currently enshrined. That covers approximately 70 years of NFL history. (In 1952, the Steelers became the last NFL team to switch to the T.)

Peyton Manning is surely the next to be inducted. If someone asked me to pick five current NFL QBs who will be inducted after retirement, I'd name, in alphabetical order, Brees, Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson.

I hear someone objecting that Mahomes hasn't played long enough to be on the list and that I should name someone else. I would hesitate, pondering the three Rs: Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan. After looking at the stats that I think are important, I'd choose Rivers. He has a slight edge in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and yards per attempt, while they're dead even in interception percentage and yards per completion.

I'm sure commenters are right about the 2 SB wins being the factor that will put Roethlisberger in. That's ironic, since his playoff numbers are not that great. In fact, his performance in SB XL was, I believe, the worst ever by a QB on the winning team. And he was mediocre in the Steelers' loss to the Packers in SB XLV. With Rivers, they might well have won 3 Super Bowls instead of 2 during that period.

[Jay Z]

I'm looking at the Pro Football Reference HOF Monitor for QBs. This list starts basically at Johnny Unitas, so the 1950s and prior QBs are not included.

100 is an average HOF QB.

Peyton Manning 258.50
Tom Brady 246.88
Brett Favre 178.84
Johnny Unitas 160.34
Joe Montana 153.45
Aaron Rodgers 143.89
Drew Brees 139.83
John Elway 137.78
Fran Tarkenton 117.28
Dan Marino 116.85
Steve Young 112.98
Average HOF QB 101
Bart Starr 97.53
Philip Rivers 95.66
Terry Bradshaw 94.82
Matt Ryan 94.54
Ben Roethlisberger 94.28
Roger Staubach 93.35
Dan Fouts 91.85
Kurt Warner 88.78
Ken Anderson 83.49
Eli Manning 83.41
Ken Stabler 82.62
Joe Namath 82.50
Sonny Jurgensen 78.92
Bob Griese 73.45
Warren Moon 72.70
Len Dawson 69.74

Next is Russell Wilson. Then you've got some other non HOFers, with Aikman and Jim Kelly being the two outliers with inferior credentials compared to the rest.

Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are all going to go in easily. Then you've got the next tier, Rivers, Ryan, Rothlisberger, Eli Manning. All "below average" for a HOFer, but (except for Eli) all with HOF QBs below them. Everyone else except for Ken Anderson has made it.

I think Rothlisberger suffers from comparison to his peers. But I think that's a statistical anomaly. There were just a lot of long running QBs that came out at the same time. If you look at the "next generation", Russell Wilson is getting close. Who else? Cam Newton's not going to make it. Matthew Stafford needs to get off the Lions. I don't think there will be as many HOFers from the younger QBs currently active.

[Reaser]

Hmmm...it seems that everyone who has commented so far agrees that Roethlisberger is a legit Hall-of-Famer, which does surprise me a bit.

Shouldn't be that surprising if people are judging it on what the HOF really is as opposed to what it should be or how each individual would have their own HOF.

For what the PFHOF is, is he a lock? Yes

He has compiled stats, 'rings', played for the Steelers which means he'll get extra credit from voters, some bonus hype being part of a hyped up "class" of QB's (none of which are overly special), first rounder, has a nickname, has a nickname while playing for the Steelers, all the stuff that gets you in the PFHOF in more modern times, etc.

[sluggermatt15]

Hmmm...it seems that everyone who has commented so far agrees that Roethlisberger is a legit Hall-of-Famer, which does surprise me a bit.

Shouldn't be that surprising if people are judging it on what the HOF really is as opposed to what it should be or how each individual would have their own HOF.

For what the PFHOF is, is he a lock? Yes

He has compiled stats, 'rings', played for the Steelers which means he'll get extra credit from voters, some bonus hype being part of a hyped up "class" of QB's (none of which are overly special), first rounder, has a nickname, has a nickname while playing for the Steelers, all the stuff that gets you in the PFHOF in more modern times, etc.

I think those voters feel there are already too many Steelers in the PFHOF. Alan Faneca has been a finalist for at least five years now. It took a special class to get Donnie Shell in. LC Greenwood and Andy Russell aren't in.

[NWebster]

So if you go by 2004 there should be 7 HOF QB's with Ben, Eli and Phillip. Basically a quarter of all QB's are HOF, that's crazy. Should the 7th best RB I'm the NFL now, whoever that is be in the Hall? FYI, I'm a Steeler fan, he's HOVG if there ever was one, along with Eli and Phillip.

[Jay Z]

So if you go by 2004 there should be 7 HOF QB's with Ben, Eli and Phillip. Basically a quarter of all QB's are HOF, that's crazy. Should the 7th best RB I'm the NFL now, whoever that is be in the Hall? FYI, I'm a Steeler fan, he's HOVG if there ever was one, along with Eli and Phillip.

1974 - Namath, Staubach, Tarkenton, Stabler, Griese, Fouts, Dawson, Bradshaw, Jurgensen.

[NWebster]

So if you go by 2004 there should be 7 HOF QB's with Ben, Eli and Phillip. Basically a quarter of all QB's are HOF, that's crazy. Should the 7th best RB I'm the NFL now, whoever that is be in the Hall? FYI, I'm a Steeler fan, he's HOVG if there ever was one, along with Eli and Phillip.

I'm anti-Stabler and honestly Namath is in for Fame not performance. But excellent point. Not a new phenomenon.

1974 - Namath, Staubach, Tarkenton, Stabler, Griese, Fouts, Dawson, Bradshaw, Jurgensen.

[rhickok1109]

I'm looking at the Pro Football Reference HOF Monitor for QBs. This list starts basically at Johnny Unitas, so the 1950s and prior QBs are not included.

100 is an average HOF QB.

Peyton Manning 258.50
Tom Brady 246.88
Brett Favre 178.84
Johnny Unitas 160.34
Joe Montana 153.45
Aaron Rodgers 143.89
Drew Brees 139.83
John Elway 137.78
Fran Tarkenton 117.28
Dan Marino 116.85
Steve Young 112.98
Average HOF QB 101
Bart Starr 97.53
Philip Rivers 95.66
Terry Bradshaw 94.82
Matt Ryan 94.54
Ben Roethlisberger 94.28
Roger Staubach 93.35
Dan Fouts 91.85
Kurt Warner 88.78
Ken Anderson 83.49
Eli Manning 83.41
Ken Stabler 82.62
Joe Namath 82.50
Sonny Jurgensen 78.92
Bob Griese 73.45
Warren Moon 72.70
Len Dawson 69.74

Next is Russell Wilson. Then you've got some other non HOFers, with Aikman and Jim Kelly being the two outliers with inferior credentials compared to the rest.

Peyton Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are all going to go in easily. Then you've got the next tier, Rivers, Ryan, Rothlisberger, Eli Manning. All "below average" for a HOFer, but (except for Eli) all with HOF QBs below them. Everyone else except for Ken Anderson has made it.

I think Rothlisberger suffers from comparison to his peers. But I think that's a statistical anomaly. There were just a lot of long running QBs that came out at the same time. If you look at the "next generation", Russell Wilson is getting close. Who else? Cam Newton's not going to make it. Matthew Stafford needs to get off the Lions. I don't think there will be as many HOFers from the younger QBs currently active.

The problem I have with their HOF monitors is that they obviously favor accumulated stats while I focus on percentages and averages.

For example, if Passer A completed 3600 of 5000 pass attempts for 35,000 yards and 300 TD, with 100 INT, and Passer B completed 4000 of 6000 for 38,000 yards and 325 TD, with 120 INT, I would strongly faver Passer A, but I'm pretty sure that HOF monitor would favor Passer B.

[conace21]

So if you go by 2004 there should be 7 HOF QB's with Ben, Eli and Phillip. Basically a quarter of all QB's are HOF, that's crazy. Should the 7th best RB I'm the NFL now, whoever that is be in the Hall? FYI, I'm a Steeler fan, he's HOVG if there ever was one, along with Eli and Phillip.

1974 - Namath, Staubach, Tarkenton, Stabler, Griese, Fouts, Dawson, Bradshaw, Jurgensen.

1994
Kelly, Elway, Marino, Montana, Aikman, Moon, Young, and Favre. All 8 were quality starters and top 10-12 QB's in the league. None had a losing record, and this group featured 7 of the 8 top rated passers (all but Moon, who proved in 1995, he was still in his prime.)

[JohnH19]

I’ll eat my shorts if Matt Ryan gets elected to the HOF. Nuff said.