QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

BD Sullivan
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by BD Sullivan »

Apbaball wrote:
BD Sullivan wrote:The Cowboys did manage to win two 1970 playoff games with Morton starting, though he contributed next to nothing:

Lions, 5-0 win: 4 of 18 for 38 yards and an interception.
49ers, 17-10 win: 7 of 22 for 101 yards, one 5-yard TD pass.


The year before, he was awful against Cleveland. However, I'm not sure rookie Staubach would have beaten the Browns, either.

8 of 24 for 92 yards and two interceptions in 38-14 loss, played in Cotton Bowl slop.


Then there's Morton's blunder in SB V...
You're giving the most extreme examples of cases where QBs don't make a difference in trying to argue that they don't matter. I don't think anyone is arguing that ever single win was as a result of the QB. QBs aren't interchange and they have to make some difference; teams obviously feel they do and so do most fans. QBs do handle the ball every play on offense, audible, decide where to throw the ball and physically run or pass. They have to have some impact. The correct question should be how much of a difference do they make? SABR type of analysis has done a good job of answering how valuable a player is to his team in baseball; football needs to find a way to quantify the formerly unquantifiable. It might not be 100% accurate but it would be a start.
No, I'm giving the results of playoff games that Craig Morton started for the Cowboys as "L.C." noted in this comment: "In my view, had Staubach played for Dallas earlier they would have had more postseason success prior to 1971." :roll:
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Bryan
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by Bryan »

I think they mean 'something' when looked at over a long period of time. It means that a QB can keep his team competitive with changing personnel around him. I think wins don't mean as much when the data set is small...I think it took Mike Livingston 5 years before he finally 'lost' a game in the NFL, yet his career W-L record was below .500. Guys like Brett Favre and John Elway kept their teams competitive longer than the typical NFL franchise "up/down" cycle.

But I'm not sure if you can really glean anything from 'wins' that you don't already know...Favre and Elway won a lot of games, but they were also really good QBs for a number of years. In general, your best QBs are going to have the most wins. As much as the SABRmetricians decry the stat, the same holds true with pitchers in baseball. Over the span of several seasons, the best starting pitchers will generally have the most wins.
rhickok1109
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by rhickok1109 »

Bryan wrote:I think they mean 'something' when looked at over a long period of time. It means that a QB can keep his team competitive with changing personnel around him. I think wins don't mean as much when the data set is small...I think it took Mike Livingston 5 years before he finally 'lost' a game in the NFL, yet his career W-L record was below .500. Guys like Brett Favre and John Elway kept their teams competitive longer than the typical NFL franchise "up/down" cycle.

But I'm not sure if you can really glean anything from 'wins' that you don't already know...Favre and Elway won a lot of games, but they were also really good QBs for a number of years. In general, your best QBs are going to have the most wins. As much as the SABRmetricians decry the stat, the same holds true with pitchers in baseball. Over the span of several seasons, the best starting pitchers will generally have the most wins.
Yes, I think that's a really good summation of the truth. A "barely above average" quarterback doesn't rack up 200 wins, no matter how much some people would like to denigrate Brady. It's absurd; it makes me think of that guy who had the website (maybe still has it) proclaiming that Michael Jordan wasn't even among the best 50 players in NBA history. That sort of thing simply makes rational discussion impossible.
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JKelly
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by JKelly »

[/quote]

There will always be extreme examples of QBs playing poorly and their teams using other methods to win. But as the position which touches the ball on every offensive play, the QB has a major influence on the the outcome of most games. Wins should always matter more to the QB position than others, I don't think it's a coincidence the elite QBs usually played on quality teams, it's a real connection. The Dallas Cowboys were loaded with talented during the mid 60s to late 60s, but it took Roger Staubach to lift them to the next level. The supporting cast theory is overblown in my opinion, that's why we very rarely see the Trent Dilfers of the world winning Super Bowls.

[/quote]


I read thru the posts concerning Roger Staubach lifting the Cowboys to the next level. I would have to disagree. It wasn't only Roger. I firmly believe to 1971 Super Bowl was won due to Calvin Hill & Duane Thomas and a fairly deep in talent defense. If Meredith had Hill & Thomas he may have won at least one of those playoffs games against the Packers. Staubach's play was good for the standards at the time but not great. The 1977 Super Bowl Staubach obviously was a bigger factor but so was their WR/TE corp which may have been the best the Cowboys ever had, a rookie Dorsett, great pass rush and the young players from the 1975 draft.

As for the remarks concerning the teams they played to get to Super Bowls they are just well......... silly. A team can only play who they play on their schedule or bracket if talking about playoffs. They can't control if a star player is hurt or not...........Obviously the Cowboys aren't liked by everyone, no team is but you have to at least be objective when formulating an opinion. Just saying they suck and pointing out every deficency their opponents had doesn't change their accomplishments. They simply beat whomever they had to play.
L.C. Greenwood
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by L.C. Greenwood »

JKelly wrote:
There will always be extreme examples of QBs playing poorly and their teams using other methods to win. But as the position which touches the ball on every offensive play, the QB has a major influence on the the outcome of most games. Wins should always matter more to the QB position than others, I don't think it's a coincidence the elite QBs usually played on quality teams, it's a real connection. The Dallas Cowboys were loaded with talented during the mid 60s to late 60s, but it took Roger Staubach to lift them to the next level. The supporting cast theory is overblown in my opinion, that's why we very rarely see the Trent Dilfers of the world winning Super Bowls.

[/quote]


I read thru the posts concerning Roger Staubach lifting the Cowboys to the next level. I would have to disagree. It wasn't only Roger. I firmly believe to 1971 Super Bowl was won due to Calvin Hill & Duane Thomas and a fairly deep in talent defense. If Meredith had Hill & Thomas he may have won at least one of those playoffs games against the Packers. Staubach's play was good for the standards at the time but not great. The 1977 Super Bowl Staubach obviously was a bigger factor but so was their WR/TE corp which may have been the best the Cowboys ever had, a rookie Dorsett, great pass rush and the young players from the 1975 draft.

As for the remarks concerning the teams they played to get to Super Bowls they are just well......... silly. A team can only play who they play on their schedule or bracket if talking about playoffs. They can't control if a star player is hurt or not...........Obviously the Cowboys aren't liked by everyone, no team is but you have to at least be objective when formulating an opinion. Just saying they suck and pointing out every deficency their opponents had doesn't change their accomplishments. They simply beat whomever they had to play.[/quote]

In SB 5, the Cowboys were dominating the line of scrimmage, so it was just more convenient to run the ball more. 1971 was Staubach's breakout year, so if that game had required more passing, I have no doubt the Cowboys would have been just fine. I just don't believe Don Meredith was capable of leading all those comebacks Staubach did in the regular and postseason during the 70s, and that's a big reason Staubach is an easy HOF selection, while Meredith was just a good QB. Roger in his prime likely helps Dallas win SB4, along with more success in the 60s as well.

Another good example of an elite QB making a difference with a strong supporting cast is Fran Tarkenton. Journeyman Gary Cuozzo was something like 16-4 in 1970-71, but the Vikings were first round playoff losers both years. Minnesota realized Cuozzo was limited, so they brought back Tarkenton. I'm always going to believe the final outcome of team sports will be related to the most important position on the field.
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Throwin_Samoan
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by Throwin_Samoan »

Finding examples of athletes credited with certain statistics despite what appear on the surface to be a pedestrian (or worse) game performance doesn't invalidate the statistic itself. It just means you need to interpret things a bit and look at context. All sports are like that. (The idea that pitchers' wins in baseball are "meaningless" is also ridiculous, given the guys with lots of them just miraculously happen to have been really good pitchers somehow, I guess.)

Football is such an interconnected game, with so many moving parts that need to work together to achieve a team victory, giving only quarterbacks credit for the win (despite their obvious importance to the effort) seems incomplete. But quarterbacks have always gotten the majority of the attention and credit (and blame, to be fair), so it makes sense Americans would try to attach this type of stat to them in an attempt to sort and rank people.

But to what end? To "prove" Tom Brady is the best quarterback ever? There are those who are going to believe that no matter what, and those who will never believe that no matter what. There are those who will say "Give me Montana" (I'll take him) and those who will say "Oh, Terry Bradshaw was so overrated" (not in his prime he wasn't) or any one of a number of other justifications for their multifaceted belief system.

No quarterback wins alone. No quarterback achieves the pinnacle of success without good players around him. The game just doesn't work that way. But that doesn't mean we can't see that Montana was better than Jim Everett or that Otto Graham was a fine leader even when he didn't throw a pass.

There are no simple answers to this question. Certainly QB wins mean something. They just don't mean everything. We always seem to be searching for that one number that means everything. But I don't think that number exists.

In the end, you kinda had to be there.
sheajets
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Re: QB Wins ¿Do they really mean anything?

Post by sheajets »

They don't mean anything to me and frankly it should be an unofficial stat, much like goalie wins in hockey and pitcher victories in baseball. Do you really need to see Brady and Mannings W/L record to know of their greatness? It's a team game. You win and lose as a team.

Archie Manning won 35 NFL games in his career. Bad QB?
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