Professional Football Researchers Association Forum
PFRA is a nonprofit organization dedicated to the history of professional football. Formed in 1979, PFRA members include many of the game's foremost historians and writers.
Bryan wrote:I don't think O'Brien is as bad as you are making him out to be. I don't think its 'mysterious' as to what happened to him. Athletically-challenged college QB plays in innovative passer-friendly system, goes to historically bad NFL team and doesn't experience the same success. Your comment of "his 1939 YPA of 6.6 was actually pretty okay" isn't fair to O'Brien as he led the league in YPA in 1939.
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I agree with just about everything you said about O'Brien, but I wanted to point out that in fact he was nowhere near leading the league in yards per attempt. Frank Filchock averaged 12.3 in 1939. Granted, he threw "only" 89 passes, so it's possible (but I'm not sure) that he wouldn't have qualified. But Arnie Herber threw 139 passes with an average of 8.0; Cecil Isbell threw 103 with an average of 7.3; and Bernie Masterson threw 113 with an average of 8.1.
Edit: I just see that somebody else has already pointed out the guys with higher averages in 1939. Never mind.
Speaking of Filchock, he's another old guy who confuses me. In Washington he was Baugh's backup and looked almost as good every time he came in in relief. Went to war, came back, and immediately looked great again. Then he got his chance with the Giants, spontaneously combusted in interceptions, and was out of the league. He was by no means consistent with Washington, but this is still bizarre.
JameisLoseston wrote:Then he got his chance with the Giants, spontaneously combusted in interceptions, and was out of the league. He was by no means consistent with Washington, but this is still bizarre.
Those interceptions aren't why he was out of the league, obviously.
He was awarded the Imperial Oil Trophy up north in 1948.
JameisLoseston wrote:Then he got his chance with the Giants, spontaneously combusted in interceptions, and was out of the league. He was by no means consistent with Washington, but this is still bizarre.
Those interceptions aren't why he was out of the league, obviously.
He was awarded the Imperial Oil Trophy up north in 1948.
Looked it up; wow, seems similar to the Black Sox. But like Shoeless Joe, Filchock never played any less than his best. Unlike Shoeless Joe, however, his game that year was poor enough that I question the need to pay him off. He did play well in the "tainted" title game though.
JameisLoseston wrote:Looked it up; wow, seems similar to the Black Sox. But like Shoeless Joe, Filchock never played any less than his best. Unlike Shoeless Joe, however, his game that year was poor enough that I question the need to pay him off. He did play well in the "tainted" title game though.
Well, he did throw SIX interceptions against the Bears. But I don't think anybody questioned that, even at the time.
There's a big, big difference between Filchock and Joe Jackson: Unlike Jackson, who took $5,000 or $10,000 from the gamblers, Filchock turned them down. His offense was that he violated the NFL's rules by not reporting the offer.
JameisLoseston wrote:Then he got his chance with the Giants, spontaneously combusted in interceptions, and was out of the league. He was by no means consistent with Washington, but this is still bizarre.
Those interceptions aren't why he was out of the league, obviously.
He was awarded the Imperial Oil Trophy up north in 1948.
Looked it up; wow, seems similar to the Black Sox. But like Shoeless Joe, Filchock never played any less than his best. Unlike Shoeless Joe, however, his game that year was poor enough that I question the need to pay him off. He did play well in the "tainted" title game though.
A quick run through the 1946 stats show that Filchock wasn't that bad that season. He was middle of the road in the modern passer rating, because he ranked 2nd in the league in three of the four categories (completion %, yards per attempt, TD %.) He had the highest interception percentage by a wide margin. Why so many? I couldn't say without film study, but it had to be tough completing passes when you're throwing off your back foot or on the run all the time.
JameisLoseston wrote:First, Foster Watkins. His rushing output was a totally ordinary one for the time, of the Thompson/Luckman variety; O'Brien's most definitely was not. Out of those 14 attempts, at least 12 had to have been sacks; with that average I can't imagine he actually ran more than 1 or 2 times. O'Brien had 100 attempts. Given the amount Watkins played, his sack rate is about proportionate to the 30-sack, -200 yard projection for DOB we established previously - and a 70-carry, twenty-yard rushing projection. Yes, O'Brien was pushing his YPC back closer to zero with all the attempts, but not by gaining yardage; he was getting stuffed over and over again, which will still do the trick when you're starting at -6 ypc. He had to have been hiding an injury.
Second, the 1939 "league lead" in Y/A. The problem here is more with PFR than anything; it only counts three QB seasons that year as qualifying, which is an obviously poor job of era-adjustment. A more realistic look at qualifying indicates that O'Brien finished fifth in Y/A behind Frank Filchock, Arnie Herber, Bernie Masterson, and Cecil Isbell. Not counting Filchock, for instance, as a qualifier is ridiculous; Filchock led the league in TDs that year. And the other three all threw more passes than Filchock, and as many or more TDs than O'Brien as well. Definitely the most artificial black number I've ever come across, and I'd say "pretty okay" is a fair descriptor for fifth in the 10-team league. In 1940 he was, predictably, last.
Good points. O'Brien's 1939 season is definitely bizarre on several levels, including 'inefficiency'. He shattered the single-season passing yardage record while not scoring any points and having arguably the worst rushing season ever.
Bryan wrote:Good points. O'Brien's 1939 season is definitely bizarre on several levels, including 'inefficiency'. He shattered the single-season passing yardage record while not scoring any points and having arguably the worst rushing season ever.
Benny Friedman had held the record in multiple iterations. Somewhere around 1800 with another season at 1700. No one broke it until, I believe, Isbell. O'Brien just led the league; he may have been the highest ever non-Friedman, I don't know. Oh, and this is a minor point, but he led in yardage in 39, and 40 was the bizarre inefficient season.
Bump with some relevant news: with his placement on IR today, Kalen Ballage's season and likely career are over. He finishes 2019 with the worst YPC (1.8) of anyone (non-Davey O'Brien) with over 60 carries in a season; he had 74 for 135 yards, surpassing our misunderstood friend Eddie Price. Price can finally rest easy. With that in addition to his abysmal receiving, Ballage might have just set a new standard of awfulness for running backs. We should really start a Hall of Very Bad.
