LUCKIEST single-season teams?

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74_75_78_79_
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by 74_75_78_79_ »

Not sure you can necessarily call a team that didn't make the playoffs..."lucky", but it took quite the 'Majik' for Green Bay to finish 10-6 in '89! Four one-point wins, an NFL record! Seven wins total by 5 points or less! Weird team. Lose at Detroit by nine but then beat SF the following week at Candlestick only to get bombed at Lambeau weeks later, 21-3, to a Chiefs team that would finish 8-7-1. Just the same, they win their next game (and then the finale) thus making '89 their first winning season since 1982 (since '78 if you want to add "in a non-strike year"); and not to have a winner again until '92!

And how about some Tebow-'magic' from 2011?? Fluky wins down the stretch to bring them to an 8-5 record after 13 games. And then they get blown-out by both the Pats and then blown-out again at Buffalo - the Bills only win after Week #7 - and then lose the finale as well. But because their division was so bad, it afforded them the division title thus actual playoff berth! And then the 12-4 Steelers give it away the following week thus forging Tebow a playoff victory on top of it!
7DnBrnc53
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by 7DnBrnc53 »

I criticize the Patriot teams of the last 20 years for being lucky, and the 2013 team was one of the luckiest. They won six games by three points or less, including wins over the Saints, Broncos, and Browns that were handed to them on a silver platter. They also barely beat a Geno Smith-led Jet team at home (despite Smith throwing four INT's), and they were trailing Miami 17-3 at halftime before Ryan Tannehill self-destructed.

Besides playing against Geno Smith twice, they also played against these QB's: Tannehill (2x), E.J. Manuel, Thaddeus Lewis, Case Keenum, & Josh Freeman.
rhickok1109
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by rhickok1109 »

7DnBrnc53 wrote:I criticize the Patriot teams of the last 20 years for being lucky, and the 2013 team was one of the luckiest. They won six games by three points or less, including wins over the Saints, Broncos, and Browns that were handed to them on a silver platter. They also barely beat a Geno Smith-led Jet team at home (despite Smith throwing four INT's), and they were trailing Miami 17-3 at halftime before Ryan Tannehill self-destructed.

Besides playing against Geno Smith twice, they also played against these QB's: Tannehill (2x), E.J. Manuel, Thaddeus Lewis, Case Keenum, & Josh Freeman.
It's often said that one mark of a good team is that it wins close games. Is that true, or is it luck?
7DnBrnc53
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by 7DnBrnc53 »

rhickok1109 wrote:
7DnBrnc53 wrote:I criticize the Patriot teams of the last 20 years for being lucky, and the 2013 team was one of the luckiest. They won six games by three points or less, including wins over the Saints, Broncos, and Browns that were handed to them on a silver platter. They also barely beat a Geno Smith-led Jet team at home (despite Smith throwing four INT's), and they were trailing Miami 17-3 at halftime before Ryan Tannehill self-destructed.

Besides playing against Geno Smith twice, they also played against these QB's: Tannehill (2x), E.J. Manuel, Thaddeus Lewis, Case Keenum, & Josh Freeman.
It's often said that one mark of a good team is that it wins close games. Is that true, or is it luck?
It's easy to win those games against terrible QB's, or when the other team gives it away.
Bob Gill
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by Bob Gill »

rhickok1109 wrote:It's often said that one mark of a good team is that it wins close games. Is that true, or is it luck?
Well, in a statistical sense, close games are much more subject to luck than blowouts. The good teams put their opponents away far more often than the bad teams do. Let's say you're a fan of the Bengals, and they're playing the Chiefs: If you hear the final score was 24-21, maybe the Bengals pulled off an upset, but if you hear it was 38-7, you know the Chiefs won, because the Bengals couldn't dominate anybody like that. They need a close game to give them a chance. And just by their nature, close games can turn on a single "lucky" play -- a bad call, a pass that's tipped at the line, whatever.

To my mind, though, there are two kinds of luck: everyday luck, and "sports luck." If I'm walking down the street and find a $20 bill, that's everyday luck: I had nothing at all to do with it. But if a football team wins because a pass is tipped at the line of scrimmage and falls into the hands of a defensive lineman, who runs 30 yards for a touchdown, that's not the same at all. Sure, a tipped ball could go in any direction; but somebody on that team did tip it, and when it came down near a teammate, he grabbed it and made the play. Luck gave them an opportunity, but they still had to take advantage of it, and did. (I guess this is where they got the idea that "you make your own luck.")

The only reason to consider luck in sports is that it's not something you can count on from game to game, or season to season. The 2001 Bears are an excellent example, and I think the Chiefs had a similar season in about 1986, when they scored quite a few touchdowns on defense and special teams and made the playoffs. Those teams deserve credit for what they accomplished, and I would not attribute their success to luck. The thing is, you can't consistently come up with plays like that, as both teams found the next year. So in that sense -- the sense that it's not a real ability -- it IS luck.

That's a long-winded answer, but I think it's accurate.
sheajets
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by sheajets »

JWL wrote:2005 Steelers
And in my nightmares I see a football tumbling end over end towards the upright...looks like it's going to make it. No...clang off the crossbar. Damn you Herm and Hackett for going into such an offensive shell in a stadium where at that time 40+ field goals were regularly missed
sheajets
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by sheajets »

2011 Giants

Football Reference has their expected W/L at 7.9/8.1
Crazy Packers Fan
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by Crazy Packers Fan »

The 2008 Steelers were lucky in a different way. In each playoff round, a team that had beaten them during the regular season (and matched up better against them) lost in a game that would have put them up against the Steelers. The Colts, Titans, and Eagles all beat Pittsburgh in the regular season but lost right before getting a second game against them. In addition, the Steelers may have had the easiest opposition by record to the Super Bowl - they beat an 8-8 team, an 11-5 team, and a 9-7 team. That's a whole lot of regular-season losses for their opposition. To top it off, Pittsburgh nemesis Tom Brady was injured in Week 1.

Of course, none of this is to say the Steelers didn't deserve the Super Bowl XLIII title, but you can definitely make the case for some luck along the way.
sheajets
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by sheajets »

Those 2008 Cardinals I thought were a bizarre lucky team. Granted after so many years of being an anonymous franchise I suppose they were due for such a season. Still they were so unbalanced. Horrible D, no semblance of a running game at all. A bottom 5 specials teams. An outstanding passing attack, and an easy schedule

I remember the Jets could've hung 70 on them in September that year. We were 9-7 too, better than the Cards..and out of the playoffs while they were hosting an NFC title game

2008's good teams like New England, NYJ, NYG, Carolina, Minnesota beat the Cards up. Sometimes very badly

To their credit they did go toe to toe with Carolina in the playoffs and beat em. And staved off an Eagles comeback with the then snakebit Reid.

Would've been nice to have a Steelers/Eagle SB that year
Saban1
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Re: LUCKIEST single-season teams?

Post by Saban1 »

I often heard in 1967 about how lucky the Cleveland Browns were, and I guess that they were that year, both on and off the field. How were they lucky? Let me count the ways:

1. The Eastern Conference in 1967 was divided into 2 divisions with the Browns toughest rival in the east, the Dallas Cowboys, placed in another division (the Capitol Division). Cleveland was placed into the Century Division, where they only had to beat out three teams instead of six teams, as in year before.

2. Their toughest rival in the new Century Division, the St. Louis Cardinals, had their very good quarterback, Charley Johnson, drafted into the army. The Cards had to go with Jim Hart at quarterback. Hart had hardly any playing experience. This was a huge break for Cleveland, especially being that Cleveland won both games with the Cards by only 4 points.

3. The Browns ended up with a very easy schedule, only playing 3 games with teams with a winning record out of their 14 games.

4. They won their first game with the Cardinals by four points despite having been out gained by a very large margin in yards. A bunch of interceptions by inexperienced quarterback Jim Hart is what made the difference in the game.

5. The Chicago Bears played without Gale Sayers in their game with the Browns. Cleveland won 24 to 0, so I suppose that the Browns probably would have won that one anyway, even with a healthy Sayers. The Bears were one of the three winning teams on the Browns schedule.

6. Browns quarterbacks were sacked eight times in the Vikings game. They looked like they would lose, but the Vikings, leading 10 to 7, fumbled with not much time left in the game. Leroy Kelly made a couple of good runs and the Browns got a TD at almost the end of the game to manage to win, 14 to 10.

7. In the Washington game, Cleveland intercepted a batted ball and ran it back for a TD. Also, Carl Ward returned a kickoff 104 yards for a TD. Cleveland won, 42 to 37, even though Washington quarterback Sonny Jurgensen had a big day and passed for over 500 yards.

8. Cleveland won their second game with the Cardinals despite apparently being outplayed again, 20 to 16. A pick six by Jim Houston for the second straight week was the key to the win.

9. Turned out, Cleveland was the only team in the weak Century Division to have a winning record.

10. The New York Giants turned out to be the Browns main competition in the NFL Century Division in 1967, even though the Giants had the worst record in the league the year before. The Giants were improved in 1967, but should not have been a serious threat to Cleveland.

The Browns luck ran out in their playoff game with Dallas, losing 52 to 14.
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