If Gruden's still with Oakland in 2002

[74_75_78_79_]

He and Al, at least for another year, are able to put their differences aside? Jon sure-enough guides Raiders to the Super Bowl as Callahan did but, at the very least, makes it competitive whoever it is against. Extremely likely it wouldn't be vs Tampa Bay. Who do Bucs get as their HC instead in such a case? Whoever it would be, would he actually be able to get over the hump of the Eagles/NFC yet alone make it to the SB and basically be able to read Gannon and that offense like a 2-page-book as Chucky himself did as that 'perfectly'-placed SB-opponent? Very heavily-unlikely.

I see the Eagles obviously representing in the NFC. Andy Reid in his first SB-appearance two years earlier with an obviously greater chance to win than he did vs Belichick/Brady in '04. A pretty-even chess match, I see, between Jon and Andy with two contrast-in-style teams to boot! If Raiders win, it'd probably still be the last year Chucky is there for the turbulence between he and Al may have reached a breaking point a la Ditka/Buddy '85. If Raiders lose, that would have all but certainly been Gruden's only chance thus far at a Lombardi.

So going to Tampa turned out to be his best shot! Taking over a team mostly built by Dungy, but tweaking it just enough in that one-more-year window of time to give the offense just enough identity (with Kiffin keeping the D what it already was if not making it even better) thus enabling the Bucs to get past Philly when it mattered, and then landing himself in the 'perfect' spot of familiarity vs his old team! Yes, Callahan knew Jon also but obviously was not nearly the chess player; or at the very, very least not on that day.

As for Andy Reid if Eagles do win...with a Lombardi already under his belt as opposed to waiting 17 years, it would certainly change his course from there. Perhaps winning at least another in Philly?

Thoughts?

[JuggernautJ]

In my opinion, the only reason that Raiders team lost that Super Bowl was because they were facing their ex-coach.
Gruden knew that team (and their All Pro QB Rich Gannon) inside out. In fact, so well he was able to play Gannon on the team the D practiced against, alerting them to all his particulars.
Without that advantage I don't see anyone stopping the Raiders that season.

Sorry, Andy.

[74_75_78_79_]

Yes, the chief reason for Bucs beating Raiders was Jon's ultra-familiarity with his former-team-from-just-one-year ago's offense and Callahan and Gannon, together, not doing enough strategically to counter that. In Tampa, Dungy had the first 3 floors of the house built with Gruden finishing things up by building the attic and the roof. Though I feel TB still under Dungy in '03 and '04 would have produced noticeably better results than the respective 7-9 and 5-11 outputs by Jon, I still respectively opine that Dungy would still have not..."finished" that attic/roof by then. Like Sapp very respectfully says about him, paraphrasing, he wasn't "ready" just yet while with TB.

Being...'Chucky', Gruden did overtly with fire-in-the-belly raise expectation of his offense led by Brad Johnson, holding everyone so much more accountable while, at the same time, very wisely leaving the D to Kiff. That shock-to-the-system/different HC-ing style apparently was enough in '02 to post TB's best-ever regular-season at 12-4 (even better than 11-5 in '99), get past Philly IN Philly thus making it to the Super Bowl - and, yes, he then being 'awarded' with that...'Ideal' opponent (practically a gift)!

I do think in a hypo-Jon being in Oaktown for '02, the Raiders likely avert that four-game skid 2nd quarter of the season and, perhaps, accumulate at least a 13-3 mark by regular-season's end. Raiders finishing all by themselves with the best-record in the league but the 12-4 Birds still making it "anyone's game". I'm with the consensus on this site that Jon has ways to go before HOVG yet alone HOF. At least for now (Las Vegas still awaits), Dungy of course is the overall better HC. But Chucky's work his first time with Oakland was respected at the time. He not doing as well with TB after '03 may have hampered his rep (all eyes on that 'gift' of a SBXXXVII-opponent widened even-more-so); but got to give him some credit where credit is due. He basically is the only one, at that very time, who could have propelled them the rest of the way to that very title. Sort-of like when the fiery Billy Martin was replaced by laid-back Bob Lemon midst of '78 which probably is what the doctor ordered to assure a repeat at that very moment (change in coaching-style at the right time could make a difference if however temporary). Though Dungy likely does 'better' FWIW after '02, a decline was coming either way for TB as one was coming for Oakland as well after that very season.

[JohnR]

Losing the SB to Gruden must have been like driving a stake through Al's heart (or the cavity where a heart might have existed).