Special teams finalists

sheajets
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by sheajets »

Seems like Steve Tasker needs to be here
JohnTurney
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JohnTurney »

Rupert Patrick wrote:
JohnTurney wrote:
Rupert Patrick wrote:
PAL/G is PAL divided by games played

PAL2/G is PAL2 divided by games played

.
What I did with this is use PAL/16...multily it times 16 games
that way, the numbers are not so tight and you can say it
in a per season context.

"The result is the number of points above or below average the kicker was relative to the league"
and to me per 16 games give some separation....

Also agree with you on your predictions. I think this was
just a typical excercise by the voters, not looking at
anything in depth, just a rubber stamp of conventional
wisdom.
For my upcoming book (I can't really say upcoming, as it officially went out to the publisher last week; it won't be published until probably late next year) I used PAL and PAL2 per 16 games like you did in my ratings lists.

Awesome----I think that will give a bit of clarity
JohnTurney
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JohnTurney »

Lechler 20th in net, 1st in gross. I know there are better ways, but for a thumbnail---his
8.5 difference between gross and net is telling,

Also 5 blocks is not awful, about average .35% but 7 TDs isnt great
His average return was 11 yards when league average was 8 or so

Not a careful punter

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boknows34
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by boknows34 »

How much further was Lechler’s gross average to league average?

Lechler’s peak was from 2007-11. Not only was he either 1st or 2nd for gross punting over those 5 seasons he led the NFL in net punting average for three consecutive seasons (2007-09) and was 2nd and 5th for the following two years as well. For those first 12 seasons (2000-11) he led the NFL in net four times, and was Top 3 six times in total.

The two seasons where Lechler ranked outside the Top 20 in Net avg from 2000-11 were 2002 and 2006. The latter was a bad year with 19 punts inside the 20 and 19 touchbacks. The 2002 season was when the Raiders won the AFC Championships and Lechler had career lows by quite a margin for both gross (42.5) and net punting (32.7). Both numbers were significantly lower than his 2nd lowest season averages of 45.7 gross and 36.4 net.

I’ll take an educated guess he was kicking to a much shorter field in 2002 hence the much lower numbers. His 18-12 ratio wasn’t that great either to be fair so that was certainly a factor too. He was probably seeing a lot more punts from midfield and the opponents’ 45 than from his own 30. Those are the only two seasons I can criticise.

Also worth noting that while Lechler’s rankings of 16th and 9th for net average in his last two seasons in Houston don’t jump off the page, he had a combined 62 punts Inside the 20, compared with only 8 Touchbacks. In 2016, his 30/3 gave him a career best 10/1 ratio for Inside 20/TB, while his 18th and final season was the second best (41.3) of his career for net average (career high 43.9 in 2009). Lechler was still a very effective punter but his rankings were hurt by the overall strength and improvement of punters during the 2010s.
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Rupert Patrick
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by Rupert Patrick »

JohnTurney wrote:Lechler 20th in net, 1st in gross. I know there are better ways, but for a thumbnail---his
8.5 difference between gross and net is telling,

Also 5 blocks is not awful, about average .35% but 7 TDs isnt great
His average return was 11 yards when league average was 8 or so
That's the problem I always had with net punting average, is that it is too dependent upon the punter's teammates. On most punts, the punter does not run down to the field of action where he just punted the ball, he lays back a distance, as he is often the last guy in waiting should the returner get past everybody else. The Raiders after 2002 were an awful team pretty much for the rest of Lechler's career there, and I have to think the higher punt return average is probably not due to Lechler but rather to his special teams who are assigned the task of stopping the return guy. Yet Lechler is the one who gets tagged for the higher return average on his punts when he wasn't the one making virtually any of the tackles.
"Every time you lose, you die a little bit. You die inside. Not all your organs, maybe just your liver." - George Allen
JameisLoseston
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JameisLoseston »

Everyone always pulls the "no one ever returned on Ray Guy" card, which does indicate that some responsibility for avoiding returns is on the punter, but I wonder how true it is. This list is nothing but active dudes, but where does Guy rank in net and gross - net among punters before, say, 2000? Was Guy really HOF material?
JohnTurney
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JohnTurney »

boknows34 wrote:How much further was Lechler’s gross average to league average?

Lechler’s peak was from 2007-11. Not only was he either 1st or 2nd for gross punting over those 5 seasons he led the NFL in net punting average for three consecutive seasons (2007-09) and was 2nd and 5th for the following two years as well. For those first 12 seasons (2000-11) he led the NFL in net four times, and was Top 3 six times in total.

The two seasons where Lechler ranked outside the Top 20 in Net avg from 2000-11 were 2002 and 2006. The latter was a bad year with 19 punts inside the 20 and 19 touchbacks. The 2002 season was when the Raiders won the AFC Championships and Lechler had career lows by quite a margin for both gross (42.5) and net punting (32.7). Both numbers were significantly lower than his 2nd lowest season averages of 45.7 gross and 36.4 net.

I’ll take an educated guess he was kicking to a much shorter field in 2002 hence the much lower numbers. His 18-12 ratio wasn’t that great either to be fair so that was certainly a factor too. He was probably seeing a lot more punts from midfield and the opponents’ 45 than from his own 30. Those are the only two seasons I can criticise.

Also worth noting that while Lechler’s rankings of 16th and 9th for net average in his last two seasons in Houston don’t jump off the page, he had a combined 62 punts Inside the 20, compared with only 8 Touchbacks. In 2016, his 30/3 gave him a career best 10/1 ratio for Inside 20/TB, while his 18th and final season was the second best (41.3) of his career for net average (career high 43.9 in 2009). Lechler was still a very effective punter but his rankings were hurt by the overall strength and improvement of punters during the 2010s.
Very aware of all those numbers. They were taken into account.

During his career the average difference between net and gross was 6.1 yards. Lechler's was 8.5. 2.4 yards or 40% higher than average
Much of that was because he allowed 11.2 yards per return when league average was 9.1,

League average for touchback inside the 20 ratio was 3.9 for that time. Lechler was 2.6 about 33% below average

Most everything else was average.
He was above average for gross punting and net punting. But his net punting was not much above average when his gross was well above
it.

Not saying he wasn't good---I am saying his statistical trail suggests he's not an all-time best.
He had best gross punting averag of all time and is 20th in net---says a lot.

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JohnTurney
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JohnTurney »

Rupert Patrick wrote:
That's the problem I always had with net punting average, is that it is too dependent upon the punter's teammates. On most punts, the punter does not run down to the field of action where he just punted the ball, he lays back a distance, as he is often the last guy in waiting should the returner get past everybody else.
All football statistics are dependant on others. I understand your point and have thought about that for a long time, since I started following it. However, it's not so bad so as
to throw it out, it's the best measure we have.

Punters can also affect the coverage. and punters like Lechler, Todd Sauerbrun, Rohn Stark, and Landeta, when you watched them, just boomed it, and often outkicked the coverage. They contributed to the coverage issues. There is a sweet spot punters have to learn to kick it to. But when you have an 8 yards difference between gross and net for your career and you punted tons of seasons, at some point it's on the punter and not the coverage.

No one is talking about outliers, a fluke, something that does not happen often. It's year-in and year-out. Jeff Feagles was better than these guys in most areas, though he has a flaw, too.

But kicking is dependent on blocker, snapping and holding----
Passing is depended on blocking, and receivers catching, etc.

I do not see net punting more dependent on coverage than it is on the punter.

The great punters figure it out, take a little off, let their guys do their job. That's why IMO Roby > Stark and Hekker and Morstead > Lechler

So, I get that net punting is not perfect, but it, taken with other things (IN-20 ratio, etc) it tells you who the great punters are far more than
looking at their gross

I am afraid that lazy All-pro voters gave Lechler the "honors" and not the Blue ribbon committee just looked at his Gross average (tops all-time)
and looked at the All-Pros and whote his name down.

I mean gross is best ever and he's 20th in net? Not 5th, or 9th--where there could be some quibble with the niceties, but 20th?

No, it's on Lechler. A good punter, but not one of the top 4 all time. Dr Z would be laughing.
boknows34
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by boknows34 »

Lechler’s career net average is still better than every punter who started their career before his 2000 rookie season.

There had been a huge spike in net punting average in the last decade or so. Is this down to great punting or is punt coverage that much better? Lechler will always be known for his huge leg and not his placement punts but I can’t ding him too hard when he led the NFL four times in net average during his 12 season peak (2000-11), and when he’s more renowned for his gross average.

Gross average has also taken a huge jump this century. Ray Guy’s raw numbers look very mediocre by today’s standards and it’s not that long ago when Sammy Baugh was still the career leader in gross average.
JohnTurney
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Re: Special teams finalists

Post by JohnTurney »

boknows34 wrote:Lechler’s career net average is still better than every punter who started their career before his 2000 rookie season.

There had been a huge spike in net punting average in the last decade or so. Is this down to great punting or is punt coverage that much better? Lechler will always be known for his huge leg and not his placement punts but I can’t ding him too hard when he led the NFL four times in net average during his 12 season peak (2000-11), and when he’s more renowned for his gross average.

Gross average has also taken a huge jump this century. Ray Guy’s raw numbers look very mediocre by today’s standards and it’s not that long ago when Sammy Baugh was still the career leader in gross average.
Well if someone wants to celebrate Lechler as someone who is better than the previous generation's punters that is fine. If we go by numbers guys like Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan's numbers crush Johnny Unitas or Sonny Jurgensen's for the same reason you cited "a huge spike" in net passing statistics.

But the issue is this: Is "better than every punter who started their career before his 2000 rookie season" good enough to be considered an All-Time great? Or even top 4?

I say no way in the same way I say Unitas is better than Rivers and Jurgensen is better than, say, Matt Ryan.
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