How to identify worst receivers?

[JameisLoseston]

Bad quarterbacks are easy to pick out from a pile; there are all kinds of numbers that set apart the Ryan Lindleys and Peter Men of the world. For RBs, low yards per carry is usually a good if not perfect indicator of a scrub, given that they aren't limited to a short-yardage role. These measures combined to identify Davey O'Brien for us as probably the NFL's all-time Least Valuable Player. However, I've struggled to come up with a reliable indicator of terrible pass catchers. They are often highly dependent on their QB and their individualized roles. One formula I've managed is low catch rate combined with low yards per catch when they do catch it, to avoid penalizing deep gadget receivers with predictably low catch rates but high Y/R. I also want to make sure the above two aren't just due to an awful QB; in the absence of that, they should indicate that the player is probably dropping or otherwise misplaying a lot of routine short routes. This formula picks out the likes of Doug Thomas and Alex Van Dyke as particularly awful examples of the receiver position. But how about for players before targets were a stat? How do I figure out how bad, say, Jimmy "Oops" Hines was, who played 10 games, caught 2 balls, and is often credited with the worst hands in NFL history despite his Olympic speed?

[Bryan]

However, I've struggled to come up with a reliable indicator of terrible pass catchers. They are often highly dependent on their QB and their individualized roles. One formula I've managed is low catch rate combined with low yards per catch when they do catch it, to avoid penalizing deep gadget receivers with predictably low catch rates but high Y/R. I also want to make sure the above two aren't just due to an awful QB; in the absence of that, they should indicate that the player is probably dropping or otherwise misplaying a lot of routine short routes. This formula picks out the likes of Doug Thomas and Alex Van Dyke as particularly awful examples of the receiver position. But how about for players before targets were a stat? How do I figure out how bad, say, Jimmy "Oops" Hines was, who played 10 games, caught 2 balls, and is often credited with the worst hands in NFL history despite his Olympic speed?

As you said, lots of variables involved. I think the simplest way is to look at the 'newfangled' yards-per-target stat. It kind of takes into account catch% and yards produced, which I think is what you are doing. For instance, in Tavon Austin's last season with the Rams, he had 13 catches on 22 targets for 47 yards...an incredible 2.1 yards per target. Perhaps one way to 'adjust' the stat would be to take the league average for yards per target and number of targets, then if a guy is below the league average in yards per target but above the league average in number of targets, that guy would have less net value than a guy like Tavon Austin who only has 22 targets. Hope that makes sense.

Not sure what to do with the historic players where the pass receiving data is limited.

[JuggernautJ]

All this focus on convoluted stats is wonderful (well, not really) but none of that tells us anything about some really important facets of what makes a player "great."

Could/would he block?
How was he as a teammate? Did he contribute or detract from the team with his "intangibles?"

One thing we consider when determining how good a player is/was is "the eye test."
When you see him play does he stand out as one of the best (or, in this case, worst) you've ever seen?
Yes, this is entirely subjective. But it is an important determinant when splitting hairs to find the best of the best (or vice versa).

It's why some players with arguably less-impressive stats are considered "great" (and in the Hall of Fame) and others with perhaps better stats (across the years) aren't.
Maybe there are some Hall of Famers who don't pass the stats test(s) the way you'd like them to. But if you saw them play (especially in the context of their time) you'd perhaps understand why they're considered with the best in the game.

[JameisLoseston]

As you said, lots of variables involved. I think the simplest way is to look at the 'newfangled' yards-per-target stat. It kind of takes into account catch% and yards produced, which I think is what you are doing. For instance, in Tavon Austin's last season with the Rams, he had 13 catches on 22 targets for 47 yards...an incredible 2.1 yards per target. Perhaps one way to 'adjust' the stat would be to take the league average for yards per target and number of targets, then if a guy is below the league average in yards per target but above the league average in number of targets, that guy would have less net value than a guy like Tavon Austin who only has 22 targets. Hope that makes sense.

Not sure what to do with the historic players where the pass receiving data is limited.

Y/T does have the same idea, but seems to encounter the reverse problem to the "deep gadget" one: a lot of the low guys are running backs who catch a lot of their targets, but just catch them in the backfield a lot. It still considers Doug Thomas terrible, however, with a career 3.2 Y/T. Man, that guy sucked.

Would game books record dropped passes by players from earlier eras? I'd love to see how many Hines must have dropped to have just 2 catches (and a fumble!) in 10 games. If not that, would they record who an incomplete pass was intended for?

[Oszuscik]

As you said, lots of variables involved. I think the simplest way is to look at the 'newfangled' yards-per-target stat. It kind of takes into account catch% and yards produced, which I think is what you are doing. For instance, in Tavon Austin's last season with the Rams, he had 13 catches on 22 targets for 47 yards...an incredible 2.1 yards per target. Perhaps one way to 'adjust' the stat would be to take the league average for yards per target and number of targets, then if a guy is below the league average in yards per target but above the league average in number of targets, that guy would have less net value than a guy like Tavon Austin who only has 22 targets. Hope that makes sense.

Not sure what to do with the historic players where the pass receiving data is limited.

Y/T does have the same idea, but seems to encounter the reverse problem to the "deep gadget" one: a lot of the low guys are running backs who catch a lot of their targets, but just catch them in the backfield a lot. It still considers Doug Thomas terrible, however, with a career 3.2 Y/T. Man, that guy sucked.

Would game books record dropped passes by players from earlier eras? I'd love to see how many Hines must have dropped to have just 2 catches (and a fumble!) in 10 games. If not that, would they record who an incomplete pass was intended for?

Game books seem to always record who the intended target of a pass was. I might be wrong, but to me it seems like the game books (roughly from 2000-Present) don’t record drops, those would just be noted as “incomplete”. The books from earlier eras seemed more detailed with mention of drops and overthrows, things like that.

[JameisLoseston]

On a related note. Kalen Ballage may be the worst RB I've ever seen. I think he's the new Peter Man, he's so endearingly horrible that it's easy to love him. And it's hard not to root for a guy named Ballage in the first place. Unfortunately nothing about his game could be described as "ballage" right now, 1.9 ypc and his Y/T in particular has been hilariously awful his past two games as starter. And of course there is the lowlights video that has been making rounds, which isn't all that far off from the truth tbh. Has anyone ever seen a RB who is worse at both rushing and receiving than him? I'm starting him on all my fantasy teams anyways though, he's just so much fun to root for and in PPR his 5 catches for 5 yards are actually useful.

[sluggermatt15]

If drops were measured throughout history, that might be the most telling stat. There's some flaw to that stat, as in if the receiver would've had to make an acrobatic or outstanding play to make the catch. It would be more helpful to have a "catchable" pass statistic...

YPC could be helpful, but what if the receiver consistently runs shorter routes or the defense is right there to make the stop?

[JohnH19]

Simple. The worst receivers are guys who drop too many on-target passes. Not catchable balls, which are sometimes difficult, but balls that are right in the hands.
Demaryius Thomas instantly comes to mind. He has been absolutely terrible for the last several years.

[rhickok1109]

Simple. The worst receivers are guys who drop too many on-target passes. Not catchable balls, which are sometimes difficult, but balls that are right in the hands.
Demaryius Thomas instantly comes to mind. He has been absolutely terrible for the last several years.

But can you really say that a guy who's caught more than 700 passes for nearly 10,000 yards and more than 60 TDs one of the worst receivers in the league? He's been a starter for his entire career. Do you think he's worse than all the receivers have been behind him on the depth charts for 9 seasons?

[JohnH19]

Simple. The worst receivers are guys who drop too many on-target passes. Not catchable balls, which are sometimes difficult, but balls that are right in the hands.
Demaryius Thomas instantly comes to mind. He has been absolutely terrible for the last several years.

But can you really say that a guy who's caught more than 700 passes for nearly 10,000 yards and more than 60 TDs one of the worst receivers in the league? He's been a starter for his entire career. Do you think he's worse than all the receivers have been behind him on the depth charts for 9 seasons?

Yep. A guy who drops as many balls as I’ve seen him drop wouldn’t be starting for me.